563
FXCA20 KWBC 051246
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
846 AM EDT TUE SEP 05 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI SEP 05/12UTC:
DRIER THAN NORMAL AIR MASS AND RELATIVELY STABLE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD
CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE INVEST 95L...CURRENTLY NEAR 37W...IS
FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE
TO THE WEST NORTHWEST...POSSIBLY PASSING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL DIP TO AROUND 1.2 INCHES TODAY
INTO THURSDAY...WHICH IS MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL...THEN PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL AT
1.6 INCHES...WITH A BRIEF DRY PATCH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY
INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL NEAR 2 INCHES FOR THE WEEKEND.
LIMITED RAINFALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A
RELATIVELY STABLE MID LEVEL AND THE DRIER AIR WILL CAUSE LITTLE TO
NO RAIN TO AFFECT EASTERN PR AND THE USVI. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IS STILL FORECAST ACROSS W/NW PR AS SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL COMBINE TO CAUSE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THE EGDI ALGORITHM DOES INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PR OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BUT THESE WOULD BE SHORT LIVED IF THEY DEVELOP. FOR THE
WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE
CURRENT INVEST 95L...THE LOCAL ISLANDS COULD OBSERVE AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AS WELL AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND...BUT
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT FEEDER BANDS COULD
AFFECT THE ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND...CAUSING LINES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE 5-DAY RAIN TOTAL FORECAST...CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING THE RAINFALL FORECAST THIS WEEKEND...SUGGESTS
NORTHWESTERN PR COULD TO RECEIVE NEAR 4 INCHES OF RAIN...AROUND 1
- 1.5 INCHES FOR SOUTHEASTERN PR...AND NEAR 0.5 - 0.75 INCHES OF
RAIN FOR THE USVI.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page