673
FXCA20 KWBC 051819
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
219 PM EDT TUE SEP 05 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 05 SEP 2023 AT 1830 UTC: OVER MEXICO...TWO
RIDGES ALOFT ARE CENTERED TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE
COUNTRY...PROMOTING DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS...AND WETTER CONDITONS ALONG THE SOUTH. A WEAK TROUGH
BETWEN THESE SYSTEMS IS VENTILATING CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...WITH EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL STORM JOVA REACHING THE SOUTHERN COASTS FROM JASLICO
TO OAXACA. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND
THE YUCATAN INTERACTS WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT ARRIVES OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA BY TUESDAY EVENING...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF
30-60MM IN TABASCO...CHIAPAS...AND EASTERN OAXACA. FROM WESTERN
OAXACA/SOUTHERN VERACRUZ TO NAYARIT...ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE DEL
SUR EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-35MM. ON WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF MEXICO MOVES WESTWARD
ALONG THE COASTS OF SINALOA AND SOUTHERN SONORA. THE TROPICAL WAVE
PUSHES WESTWARD AND FAVORS MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN SOUTHERN
OAXACA...AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN SOUTHERN VERACRUZ...TABASCO AND
CHIAPAS. SOUTHERN SONORA...SINALOA...AND NAYARIT ARE FORECAST
MAXIMA OF 35-70MM AND JASLISCO...COLIMA...MICHIACAN...AND GUERRERO
ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON THURSDAY...A DISTURBANCE IN THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOVES OVER THE YUCATAN AND
FAVORS RISK OF MCS FORMATION. EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM FROM WEST
CAMPECHE TO SOUTHERN VERACRUZ. FROM SOUTHERN SONORA TO NORTHWEST
JALISCO EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS. SOUTHERN MEXICO CAN EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 20-45MM.
IN THE CARIBBEAN...THE BASE OF A ROBUST TROUGH ALOFT IS LOCATED
OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES...AND AN INDUCED TROUGH IN THE LOWER
LEVELS IS FAVORING PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. DRIER AIR IS
MOVING INTO THE AREA AND WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION
FOR THE CARIBBEAN. ON TUESDAY...MAXIMA OF 20-40MM ARE EXPECTED IN
EASTERN CUBA AND CENTRAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ELSHWERE IN THE
CARIBBEAN...EXPECT MAXIMA TO REMAIN BELOW 25MM. ON WEDNESDAY...AND
EASTERLY WAVE MOVES OVER HISPANIOLA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. WHILE IN CUBA...THE INDUCED TROUGH WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
20-45MM. ON THURSDAY...CUBA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF
THE INDUCED TROUGH AND CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ELSWHERE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN...MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25MM.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...OROGRAPHIC LIFTING FROM THE EASTERLY TRADES
AND INTERACTIONS WITH THE ITCZ...AND THE PASSING TROPICAL WAVES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN PRODUCERS OF RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. ON TUESDAY...BELIZE...EASTERN GUATEMALA...AND EL
SALVADOR ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...WHILE NICARAGUA...COSTA
RICA...AND PANAMA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON
WEDNESDAY...COSTA RICA AND PANAMA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF
20-35MM...AND GUATEMALA AND BELIZE CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
ON THURSDAY...COSTA RICA AND PANAMA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF
20-35MM...AND BELIZE...GUATEMALA...NORTH HONDURAS...AND EL
SALVADOR ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...AN EASTERLY WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO AND EASTERN VENEZUELA AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE OVER THE AREA...WHILE INTERACTIONS WITH THE ITCZ ALONG
THE NORTH AND WESTERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN COLOMBIA ARE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ON TUESDAY...MAXIMA
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25MM OVER THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW OVER WESTERN COLOMBIA INCREASES
AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ARE FORECAST ALONG NORTH AND WESTERN
COLOMBIA. THE EASTERLY WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN
VENEZUELA AND EASTERN COLOMBIA. ON THURSDAY...THE EASTERLY WAVE IS
FORECAST TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN NORTH AND WESTERN COLOMBIA.
A TROUGH IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVER VENEZUELA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
20-45MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 06/00 06/12 07/00 07/12 08/00 08/12 09/00 09/12
EW 15N 61W 65W 69W 72W 75W 77W 79W 81W 82W
TW 19N 88W 90W 92W 94W 96W 98W 100W 102W 105W
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 61W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 15N. ON
TUESDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN NORTH-CENTRAL
VENEZUELA...AND THE SOUTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. ON WEDNESDAY...THE
WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN
HISPANIOLA AND WEST VENEZUELA AND EASTERN COLOMBIA. ON
THURSDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN NORTH AND WEST
COLOMBIA...ASSISTED BY WEST ONSHORE FLOW OVER WESTERN COLOMBIA.
GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-45MM ARE EXPECTED IN PANAMA AND EASTERN
CUBA... AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN CENTRAL COLOMBIA...AND JAMAICA.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 88W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 19N. ON
TUESDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN
CHIAPAS...TABASCO...AND WESTERN GUATEMALA. ON WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN SOUTHERN OAXACA AND GUERRERO...AND
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN SOUTH VERACRUZ...EAST OAXACA...CHIAPAS...AND
TABASCO...ASSISTED BY LARGE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND
ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST. ON THURSDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM FROM SOUTHERN JALISCO TO WESTERN OAXACA...ALONG
THE EJE VOLCANICO TRANSVERSAL AND THE SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR.
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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