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FXCA20 KWBC 061229
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
829 AM EDT WED SEP 06 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI SEP 06/12UTC:
MUCH DRIER THAN NORMAL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TODAY...THOUGH
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY...IT WILL STILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON
FRIDAY AND REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS
THE CURRENT TROPICAL STORM LEE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT CAUSING SOME MOISTURE TO MOVE OVER THE
ISLANDS...POSSIBLY FROM AN OUTER BAND OF THE STORM. TROPICAL STORM
LEE...IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO STRENGTHEN
INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEK...AND THE FORECAST TRACK
HAS THE CENTER OF LEE OVER 250 TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE USVI/PR. IN
TERMS OF RAINFALL IMPACT...THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTER BAND COULD NOT
ONLY CAUSE THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE...BUT ALSO CAUSE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND...THEN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MOISTURE COULD BE PULLED NORTH...MAINTAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL MOISTURE OVER THE ISLANDS INTO MONDAY.
LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR...DUE TO SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
AND DIURNAL HEATING...BUT THE VERY DRY AIR WILL LIMIT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. THAT BEING SAID...THE EGDI ALGORITHM DOES NOT
SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OTHER THAN VERY
ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORMS. THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THERE
COULD BE SLIGHTLY LONGER LIVED STORMS...POSSIBLY BECAUSE OF THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...BUT IT IS NOT UNTIL FRIDAY WHERE THE EGDI
ALGORITHM STARTS TO PICK UP ON THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...AS THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE
ON THE UPPER END OF NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE OVERALL
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL COVERAGE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY THIS
WEEKEND...WITH SATURDAY LOOKING PARTICULARLY RAINY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR TO WESTERN PR. ON SUNDAY...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR TO SOUTHEASTERN PR...EAST
INTO THE NORTHERN USVI. THIS HOWEVER WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE CURRENT TROPICAL STORM
LEE...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE SPECIFICS ON WHERE THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR.
THE 5-DAY RAIN TOTAL FORECAST...CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING THE RAINFALL FORECAST THIS WEEKEND...SUGGESTS
NORTHWESTERN PR COULD TO RECEIVE NEAR 4 INCHES OF RAIN...AROUND
1.5 - 2 INCHES FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERN PR...AND AROUND A HALF TO
ONE INCH OF RAIN FOR THE USVI.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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