168
FXCA20 KWBC 061839
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
239 PM EDT WED SEP 06 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 06 SEP 2023 AT 1830 UTC: A ROBUST UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHERN SONORA EXTENDS OVER MOST OF
NORTHERN MEXICO WHERE DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
TO THE SOUTH...A DISTURBANCE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS COMES FROM
THE GULF OF HONDURAS INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ADDITIONALLY A
TROPICAL WAVE PROPAGATES OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO AND PRODUCES
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 40-80MM IN NAYARIT AND WEST JALISCO...AND MAXIMA OF
35-70MM IN GUERRERO AND WEST OAXACA. MAXIMA OF 20-45MM ARE
FORECAST ALONG THE EJE VOLCANICO
TRANSVERSAL...MICHOACAN...GUERRERO...AND WEST YUCATAN PENINSULA.
ON THURSDAY...FROM SOUTHERN SINALOA TO WEST JALISCO CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 35-70MM WHILE SOUTHERN VERACRUZ TO WEST CAMPECHE CAN
EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS WITH A RISK OF MCS WITH THE PASSING OF A
DISTURBANCE IN THE MID LEVELS. ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL-SOUTHERN
MEXICO EXPECT MAXIMA BELOW 45MM. ON FRIDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN...INCREASING ITS REACH FURTHER SOUTH...FAVORING DRIER
CONDITIONS. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED OVER
SOUTHERN GUERRERO AND OAXACA WITH MAXIMA OF 30-60MM...WHILE
ELSEWHERE OVER MEXICO MAXIMA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 35MM.
OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...A SEMI-STATIONARY INDUCED TROUGH IS
LOCATED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND INTO CUBA AND IT
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ITS BASE OVER CUBA
AND HISPANIOLA. ON WEDNESDAY...THESE CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA
OF 25-50MM OVER EASTERN CUBA AND LESS THAN 25MM IN THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS/TURKS AND CAICOS...WESTERN CUBA...AND WEST-CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA. ON THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS
IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY PROPAGATE ALONG THE UPPER TROUGH AND
PROVIDE VENTILATION FOR CONVECTION OVER EASTERN CUBA...WHERE
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE REST OF THE
GREATER ANTILLES...MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25MM. THE
LESSER ANTILLES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE MAXIMA BELOW 15MM. ON
FRIDAY...THE INDUCED TROUGH BEGINS TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE NORTHWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM OVER MOST OF
THE BAHAMAS/TURKS AND CAICOS. TO THE EAST...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND MINIMAL EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...OROGRAPHIC LIFTING FROM THE EASTERLY
TRADES...INTERACTIONS WITH THE ITCZ...AND THE PASSING TROPICAL
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN PRODUCERS OF RAINFALL FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN
BELIZE...GUATEMALA...WEST HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR. SIMILAR
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS ON THURSDAY. ON
FRIDAY...MOST OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO SEE MAXIMA BETWEEN
15-35MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...AN EASTERLY WAVE...LOW LEVEL TROUGHS
AND INTERACTIONS WITH THE ITCZ ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN
PRODUCERS OF RAIN OVER THE AREA. ON WEDNESDAY...NORTH AND WEST
COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...WHILE EAST
COLOMBIA...VENEZUELA...AND FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME CAN EXPECT
GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON THURSDAY...THE EASTERLY WAVE
OVER NORTH COLOMBIA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM...AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM IN WESTERN VENEZUELA AND CENTRAL COLOMBIA. CENTRAL
VENEZUELA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...AND ELSEWHERE OVER THE
GUIANAS...CAN EXPECT ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON
FRIDAY...NORTHEAST COLOMBIA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST VENEZUELA CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-45MM ARE
EXPECTED OVER WESTERN COLOMBIA AND CENTRAL VENEZUELA...WHILE
ELSEWHERE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA EXPECT MAXIMA TO NOT EXCEED
25MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 07/00 07/12 08/00 08/12 09/00 09/12 10/00 10/12
EW 14N 66W 69W 72W 74W 76W 78W 80W 82W 84W
TW 22N 95W 97W 99W 101W 103W 105W 107W 109W 111W
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 66W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 14N. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN WEST
VENEZUELA AND EASTERN COLOMBIA. ON THURSDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN NORTH COLOMBIA...AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN
CENTRAL COLOMBIA. ON FRIDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
15-25MM IN PANAMA AND 20-35MM IN WEST COLOMBIA.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 95W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 22N. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN SOUTHERN
OAXACA AND GUERRERO...AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN SOUTH
VERACRUZ...EAST OAXACA...CHIAPAS...AND TABASCO...ASSISTED BY LARGE
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
ON THURSDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM FROM SOUTHERN
JALISCO TO WESTERN OAXACA...ALONG THE EJE VOLCANICO TRANSVERSAL
AND THE SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM
FROM SOUTHERN SINALOA TO WESTERN JALISCO.
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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