466
FXCA20 KWBC 071232
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
831 AM EDT THU SEP 07 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI SEP 07/12UTC:
DRIER THAN NORMAL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT MOISTURE IS
GRADUALLY INCREASING AND COULD BE IN THE NORMAL RANGE BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A BRIEF DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...THEN A
SHARP INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...KEEPING THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE UPPER END OF
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE COULD BE ATTRIBUTED TO
MOISTURE BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE LEE...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST
FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS HURRICANE LEE
MOVING OVER 250NM NORTHEAST OF ST JOHN USVI...AND OVER 275NM NE OF
SAN JUAN PR AS IT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. IN TERMS OF RAINFALL
IMPACT...BANDS OF MOISTURE COULD CAUSE SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP OVER THE ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR...DUE TO SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL HEATING...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS
COULD AFFECT EASTERN PR AND THE USVI IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
OVERALL SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY
THIS WEEKEND. THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON FRIDAY IS FORECAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR...WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO WESTERN PR. ON SUNDAY...THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR
TO SOUTHEASTERN PR...EAST INTO THE NORTHERN USVI...WHILE A SIMILAR
PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY BUT WITH LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
FAVORING NORTHEAST PR MORE SO THAN SOUTHEASTERN.
THE 5-DAY RAIN TOTAL FORECAST...CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING THE RAINFALL FORECAST DUE TO HURRICANE LEE PASSING TO
THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...SUGGESTS THE INTERIOR OF PR COULD
RECEIVE NEAR 3.5 INCHES OF RAIN...AROUND 2 INCHES FOR SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERN PR...AROUND 0.5 INCHES FOR ST CROIX AND BETWEEN 1 AND
1.25 INCHES FOR THE NORTHERN USVI.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page