554
FXCA20 KWBC 071911
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
310 PM EDT THU SEP 07 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 07 SEP 2023 AT 1900 UTC: HURRICANE LEE IS
STRENGTHENING RAPIDLY AND IT IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER TO REMAIN OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE NORTH OF THE
GREATER ANTILLES AND HE BAHAMAS. AT THIS TIME NO DIRECT RAINFALL
IMPACT IS EXPECTED OVER THE ISLANDS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FEEDER
BANDS AND A LOCALIZED INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
A BROAD UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHERN SONORA
EXTENDS OVER MOST OF NORTHERN MEXICO...THEN AN UPPER TROUGH IS
LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE STATE OF FLORIDA AND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. TO THE SOUTH...A DISTURBANCE IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS COMES FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
ADDITIONALLY A TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF CENTRAL MEXICO AND AN
ONSHORE FLOW FROM A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TODAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM OVER THE COASTAL WESTERN MEXICO
FROM SONORA TO NORTHERN NAYARIT...WHILE PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NAYARIT INTO JALISCO COULD OBSERVE UP TO 50MM OF RAIN WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME AREAS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL SEE
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MAX UP TO
70MM AND RISK OF MCS. ON FRIDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AND STRENGTHEN. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SINALOA...NAYARIT...SOUTHERN CHIAPAS INTO CAMPECHE...WHERE MAX
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 30 AND 70MM. ON
SATURDAY THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SECTIONS MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH TO
OAXACA...INTO CHIAPAS...TABASCO AND CAMPECHE...WITH MAX AMOUNTS UP
TO 60MM.
OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...A SEMI-STATIONARY INDUCED TROUGH IS
LOCATED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND INTO CUBA AND IT
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS OVER
FLORIDA AND BASE OVER CUBA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
20-45MM OVER EASTERN CUBA AND LESS THAN 25MM IN THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS/TURKS AND CAICOS...WESTERN CUBA...AND WEST-CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA. ON THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS
IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY PROPAGATE ALONG THE UPPER TROUGH AND
PROVIDE VENTILATION FOR CONVECTION OVER CUBA...BUT THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IS LACKING...SO MAX TOTALS OF 35MM ARE EXPECTED OVER
CUBA. ACROSS THE REST OF THE GREATER ANTILLES...MAXIMA ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25MM. THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE MAXIMA BELOW 15MM. ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE INDUCED TROUGH
BEGINS TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25MM OVER MOST OF THE BAHAMAS/TURKS AND CAICOS AND
WESTERN CUBA. TO THE EAST...OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...WHERE
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...OROGRAPHIC LIFTING FROM THE EASTERLY
TRADES...ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN PRODUCERS OF RAINFALL FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GENERALLY THE RAINFALL MAX WILL BE AROUND 25 -
35MM EACH DAY...THOUGH COSTA RICA AND PANAMA IS FORECAST TO HAVE
RAINFALL MAXIMA UP TO 60MM ON SATURDAY...AS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE WEEKEND.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...AN EASTERLY WAVE...LOW LEVEL TROUGHS
AND INTERACTIONS WITH THE ITCZ ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN
PRODUCERS OF RAIN OVER THE AREA. TODAY...THE EASTERLY WAVE OVER
NORTH COLOMBIA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM...AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM IN WESTERN VENEZUELA AND CENTRAL COLOMBIA. CENTRAL
VENEZUELA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...AND ELSEWHERE OVER THE
GUIANAS...CAN EXPECT ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON
FRIDAY...NORTHEAST COLOMBIA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST VENEZUELA CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-45MM ARE
EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL VENEZUELA...WHILE ELSEWHERE OVER NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA EXPECT MAXIMA TO NOT EXCEED 25MM. SATURDAY IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE MAXIMA OF 20 - 45MM ACROSS NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA
AND VENEZUELA...AS WE AS EASTERN VENEZUELA. COASTAL WESTERN
COLOMBIA WILL HAVE MAXIMA OF UP TO 60MM AND CENTRAL TO EASTERN
COLOMBIA AND NORTHEASTERN ECUADOR IS FORECAST TO HAVE UP TO 35MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 08/00 08/12 09/00 09/12 10/00 10/12 11/00 11/12
EW 14N 72W 74W 76W 78W 80W 82W 84W 86W 88W
TW 22N 98W 102W 104W 106W 108W 110W 112W 114W EXT
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 72W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 14N. ON
THURSDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN NORTH
COLOMBIA...AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN CENTRAL COLOMBIA. ON
FRIDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN PANAMA AND
20-35MM IN WEST COLOMBIA. ON SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO HAVE MAXIMA
UP TO 35MM OVER NICARAGUA.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 98W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 22N. ON
THURSDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM FROM SOUTHERN
JALISCO TO WESTERN OAXACA...ALONG THE EJE VOLCANICO TRANSVERSAL
AND THE SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SINALOA TO JALISCO. BY SATURDAY...THE
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT SHOULD NOT HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IN RAINFALL ACROSS COASTAL MEXICO.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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