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FXCA20 KWBC 081210
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
810 AM EDT FRI SEP 08 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI SEP 08/12UTC:
THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS MAJOR HURRICANE LEE...WHICH IS FORECAST
TO PASS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS AVOIDING A DIRECT
IMPACT AND LIMITED IMPACTS OF FEEDER BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. NEVERTHELESS...THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF LEE WILL
BE FELT IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VI PRODUCING A PRONOUNCED ROTATION
OF THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL WINDS FROM NORTHEASTERLIES ON FRIDAY AND
EARLY SATURDAY...TO VERY WEAK WINDS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY...TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLIES ON MONDAY...AND THEN
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLIES ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL INDEED HAVE A STRONG
ROLE IN MODULATING THE LOCATION OF DIURNAL CONVECTION...TOGETHER
WITH SOME PERIODIC ENHANCEMENT BY FEEDER BAND CONVECTION.
ON FRIDAY MORNING...SATELLUTE IMAGERY IS ALREADY SHOWING A FEW
FEEDER BAND STRUCTURE3S WITH VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION ROTATING FAR
AWAY FROM LEE. ONE OF THEM IS ENTERING THE VI FROM THE
EAST...ACCOMPANIED BY VERY ISOLATED DEEL CONVECTION. THIS WILL
FAVOR GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE VI INTO
EASTERN PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE DAY. PREVAILING NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS DURING FRIDAY WILL CLUSTER AFTERNOON MAXIMA IN SOUTHWEST
PUERTO RICO...WHERE EXPECT AMOUNTS OF 1-1.5 INCHES.
ON SATURDAY...A WEAKNESS IN THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL ALLOW THE ROLE
OF DIURNAL BREEZES TO TRIGGER CONVECTION PRIMARILY ALONG THE
CORDILLERA. THE LARGE DISTANCE BETWEEN LEE AND THE ISLANDS WILL
LIMIT THE CYCLONE-GENERATED SUBSIDENCE...ALLOWING FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 1.5-2.5 INCHES IN THE SOUTHWEST CORDILLERA...AND MAXIMA
NEARING 1 INCH IN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO. WEAK
WESTERLIES DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY WILL CLUSTER AFTERNOON MAXIMA TO
SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO. EXPECT AMOUNTS NEARING 0.5 INCHES. FEEDER
BAND CONVECTION ACROSS THE VI WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 0.3-0.5 INCHES
EXCEPT IN ST. CROIX WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA UNDER 0.2 INCHES. MONDAY
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO...WHERE
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 0.2-0.4 INCHES WHILE IN THE VI...FEEDER BAND
CONVECTION WILL FAVOR MAXIMA GENERALLY UNDER 0.3 INCHES. ON
TUESDAY...THE LARGEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
AND SOUTHERN FLANKS OF THE CORDILLERA IN PUERTO RICO. ENHANCED
SUBSIDENCE IN THE PERIPHERY OF LEE WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO
TAMPER THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION...FAVORING A MINIMA
ALONG MOST OF THE NORTH COAST/NORTHERN PLAINS OF PUERTO RICO.
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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