935
FXCA20 KWBC 081659
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1259 PM EDT FRI SEP 08 2023
AT 15 UTC...HURRICANE LEE CENTERED NEAR 18.2N 54,5W. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 942 HPA AND IT WAS MOVING TO THE
WEST-NORTHERST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
WERE ESTIMATED AT 135KT WITH GUSTS TO 165KT. FOLLOW NHC GUIDANCE
FOR TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.
FORECAST BULLETIN 08 SEP 2023 AT 1700 UTC: MAJOR HURRICANE LEE IS
THE MAIN SYSTEM OF INTEREST...YET CURRENT EVOLUTION AND FORECASTS
KEEP IT AWAY FROM LAND. THE ABSENCE OF ROBUST FEEDER BANDS WILL
LIMIT ITS EFFECTS ON PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FEEDER BAND CONVECTION WILL FAVOR MAXIMA
OF 15-25MM BETWEEN MARTINIQUE AND SAINT KITTS/BARBUDA ON FRIDAY.
ON SATURDAY EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS BETWEEN DOMINICA AND SAINT
MARTIN/SABA. ON SUNDAY EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS BETWEEN PUERTO RICO
AND SAINT KITTS/BARBUDA. NOTE THAT ON SATURDAY...LOCALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THE CORDILLERA OF PUERTO RICO AS A
MOIST PLUME IS UTILIZED BY ENHANCED DIURNAL BREEZES TO FAVOR DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.
TO THE WEST...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE USA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IS FORECAST TO REFORM WHILE
RETROGRADING TO EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL
MEXICO BY SUNDAY. ADVECTION OF DRY AIR IN THE REAR/NORTHWEST FLANK
OF THE TROUGH WILL FAVOR UNSEASONABLY DRY CONDITIONS IN MOST OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE.
HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE CLUSTERINF ALONG NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA/YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO SOUTHWEST MEXICO WILL FAVOR A MUCH
WETTER PATTERN. ON FRIDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-50MM IN THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA INGO NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND
CHIAPAS/TABASCO. IN SOUTHWEST OAXACA/GUERRERO EXPECT MAXIMA OF
25-50MM...WHILE BETWEEN EL SALVADOR...SOUTHERN GUATEMALA AND MOST
OF VERACRUZ EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ALSO ON
FRIDAY...AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION FROM JALISCO/NAYARIT INTO
CENTRAL SINALOA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...STIMULATED BY A
TROPICAL WAVE. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION TO
CLISTER FROM NORTHERN GUATEMALA/YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST INCO
SOUTHERN VERACRUZ...OAXACA AND GUERRERO...WHERE DIURNAL CONVECTION
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GUATEMALA
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. ON SUNDAY...AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL
STIMULATE CONVECTION IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOST OF
GUATEMALA...CHIAPAS...TABASCO AND SOUTHERN VERACRUZ. EXPECT
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA GENERALLY IN THE 25-50MM/DAY RANGE.
IN THE CARIBBEAN...ASIDE FROM THE INDIRECT IMPACTS OF LEE IN
NORTHEASTERN NATIONS...EXPECT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVE3CTION TO
CLUSTER IN THE BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ON
FRIDAY...WHILE IN CENTRAL AND EAST CUBA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.
ON SATURDAY THE TROUGH WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM...WHILE IN
CENTRAL AND WEST CUBA...AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
15MM. ACCUMULATIONS DECREASE THEREAFTER. IN JAMAICA AND
HISPANIOLA...EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION IN A DAILY BASIS...TO
PRODUCE VERY ISOLATED MAXIMA GENERALLY IN THE 15-20MM/DAY RANGE.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA/SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...THE MOST
ACTIVE CONVECTION AND PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO CLUSTER FROM
WESTERN VENEZUELA ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN COLOMBIA INTO PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA. INITIALLY...A MOIST PLUME MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
VENEZUELA INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL INTERACT WITH THE BASE OF AN
UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
30-60MM IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA/LAKE MARACAIBO REGION...WHILE IN
CENTRAL VENEZUELA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. IN PANAMA...AN
EASTERLY WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT
AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE PANAMANIAN LOW. THIS WILL ENHANCE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WHICH...IN INTERACTION WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH...WILL FAVOR AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN-PRODUCING CONVECTION. EXPECT AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 35-70MM FROM WESTERN COLOMBIA INTO NORTHERN
COLOMBIA/LAKE MARACAIBO...AND WEST ACROSS MOST OF PANAMA INTO
SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. ON SUNDAY...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
TO CLUSTER IN THE PACIFIC BASIN OF COSTA RICA AND IN WEST
PANAMA...WHERE ONSHORE FLOW AND THE ITCZ WILL FAVOR 15-30MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. ONSHORE FLOW WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM
IN WESTERN COLOMBIA...WHILE IN CENTRAL/EAST PANAMA EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 15-30MM. DIURNAL CONVECTION IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 09/00 09/12 10/00 10/12 11/00 11/12 12/00 12/12
EW 20N 77W 79W 81W 84W 86W 89W 92W 94W 96W
TW 22N 104W 106W 108W 110W 112W 114W EXITS
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 77W AND SOUTH OF 20N. IT WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN PANAMA ON FRIDAY...WHILE IN JAMAICA
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM...AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN CUBA. ON
SATURDAY...TRAILING MOISTURE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN WEST
PANAMA/SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...WHILE IN NORTHERN COSTA RICA AND
EASTERN NICARAGUA/EAST HONDURAS EXPECT GENERALLY MAXIMA OF 15MM.
ON SUNDAY...IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA/PETEN...AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN BELIZE/HONDURAS AND EL
SALVADOR.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 104W AND SOUTH OF 22N. ON FRIDAY
IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN JALISCO/NAYARIT...TO THEN EXIT
INTO OPEN WATERS OF THE PACIFIC LIMITING ITS EFFECTS ON
CONTINENTAL CONVECTION.
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page