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FXCA20 KWBC 111244
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
844 AM EDT MON SEP 11 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI SEP 11/12UTC:
THE LOCAL WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HURRICANE
LEE...WHICH IS NOW OVER 340 MILES NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. AS
HURRICANE LEE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWEST...THE LOCAL WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TODAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON TUESDAY.
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
UNTIL FRIDAY...WHEN THE WINDS COULD SHIFT TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION...ALBEIT STILL LIGHT AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING
BETWEEN 1.7 AND 2.0 INCHES.
THE RAINFALL PATTERN OVER PR/USVI TODAY WILL FAVOR THE HEAVIEST
RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO EASTERN SECTIONS OF PR...WHILE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE USVI. THIS IS BECAUSE
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A STRONG WESTERLY
COMPONENT...CAUSING THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO HAVE A HIGHER
CHANCE OF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO EASTERN SECTIONS.
THERE IS HOWEVER SOME DISCREPANCY ON WHERE THE MAX RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR...WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED CONSIDERING THE STRONG INFLUENCE
HURRICANE LEE WILL HAVE IN THE LOCAL WIND FLOW AND HOW FEEDER
BANDS DEVELOP AND AFFECT PR. THE DIFFERENT HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE
MOSTLY AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP
ACROSS EASTERN PR...BUT SOME PUT THAT BAND ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
PR...SOME ACROSS EASTERN CENTRAL AND SOME FAVORING MORE
SOUTHEASTERN PR. THEREFORE IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP. THAT
BEING SAID...THE EAST CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST PR APPEARS TO BE A
REASONABLE LOCATION FOR THE HIGHEST RAINFALL...WITH OVER ONE INCH
IN THE FORECAST...AS WINDS ARE SHIFTING FROM WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. FROM TUESDAY ONWARD...THE
AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE...WITH
MAX VALUES GENERALLY UNDER A HALF AN INCH OF RAIN. THE SOUTHERN
SLOPES OF PR ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN ON
TUESDAY...WHILE EACH DAY THE PRECIP MAXIMA LOCATION WILL CHANGE
BASED ON THE WIND FLOW AND LOCAL EFFECT INFLUENCE.
THE 5-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST UNDER 2 INCHES
ACROSS CENTRAL PR TO NORTHEAST PR. THE USVI IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE
FROM AROUND HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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