825
FXCA20 KWBC 111725
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
124 PM EDT MON SEP 11 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 11 SEP 2023 AT 1730 UTC: OF INTEREST...HURRICANE
LEE CONTINUES AS A MAJOR HURRICANE NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN...CENTERED AT 23.5N AND 63.5W AT 15 UTC. IT HAS AN
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 948 HPA WITH ESTIMATED MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. FOLLOW NHC
GUIDANCE FOR TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.
HURRICANE LEE WILL KEEP AWAY FROM LAND AND ITS EFFECTS TO THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ARE LIMITED THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AN INDUCED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH LEE IS EXPECTED OVER HISPANIOLA
AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. ELSEWHERE IN THE
CARIBBEAN...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. ON MONDAY...PUERTO RICO/VI ARE
FORECAST MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON TUESDAY...HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON WEDNESDAY...HISPANIOLA...AND
EASTERN CUBA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN EAST MEXICO AND NORTH CENTRAL
AMERICA DUE TO THE ADVECTION OF DRY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTH FLORIDA USA AND INTO EAST
MEXICO....AND ASSISTED BY THE CONVERGENT PHASE OF THE MJO.
CONSERVATIVE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN MEXICO
DUE ONSHORE FLOW FAVORING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE AREA. AN
INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO
AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA WITH THE APPROACH OF AN EASTERLY WAVE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON MONDAY...SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ...OAXACA...BELIZE...EAST GUATEMALA...AND NORTHWEST
HONDURAS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM....WHILE ELSEWHERE OVER THE
REGION...MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25MM. ON
TUESDAY...WEST HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR/SOUTH GUATEMALA CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN EASTERLY WAVE. AND ON
WEDNESDAY...THE EASTERLY WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM FROM
SOUTHERN CHIAPAS TO EL GOLFO DE FONSECA REGION. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE OVER SOUTHERN SONORA/NORTHERN SINALOA WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...EASTERLY
FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER TROPOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MJO...LARGE
SCALE UPPER CONVERGENCE WILL PREVAIL...TO CONTINUE LIMITING THE
COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE CYCLE. A WEAK KELVIN WAVE
IS PROPAGATING FROM SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA ON MONDAY INTO THE
GUIANAS BY WEDNESDAY AND WILL PROVIDE SOME MARGINAL
ENHANCEMENT...FAVORING AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL AMOUNTS IN VENEZUELA
STARTING ON TUESDAY...TO FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION AND MUCH LESSER
AMOUNTS IN VENEZUELA AND AREAS TO THE EAST.
SIMILARLY...CONSERVATIVE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN NICARAGUA AND
COSTA RICA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SAHARAN AIR LAYER. THE
LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM SOUTHERN COSTA RICA INTO
WESTERN COLOMBIA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
PANAMANIAN LOW AND LARGER VALUES OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. ON MONDAY
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN MOST OF WESTERN COLOMBIA AND MAXIMA OD
20-35MM IN NORTHERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL COLOMBIA. ON TUESDAY EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN WEST...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA. ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA AND
NORTHERN COLOMBIA...WHILE IN THE EJE CAFETERO/ANTIOQUIA AND DARIEN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 12/00 12/12 13/00 13/12 14/00 14/12 15/00 15/12
EW 17N 80W 84W 86W 88W 90W 92W 94W 96W 99W
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 80W AND SOUTH OF 20N. ON
MONDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN SOUTHERN COSTA
RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA. MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ARE EXPECTED FROM
EASTERN HONDURAS TO NORTHERN COSTA RICA. ON TUESDAY...THE WAVE
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN WEST HONDURAS AND EL
SALVADOR...AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN BELIZE...GUATEMALA...SOUTHERN
CAMPECHE...TABASCO...AND CHIAPAS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM FROM SOUTHERN CHIAPAS TO THE GOLFO DE
FONSECA REGION...AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA...TABASCO...NORTHERN CHIAPAS...SOUTHERN VERACRUZ...AND
OAXACA.
ACOSTA/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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