223
FXCA20 KWBC 121807
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
207 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 12 SEP 2023 AT 1800 UTC: MAJOR HURRICANE LEE IS
LOCATED NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN...CENTERED AT 24.3N AND 65.9W AT 15
UTC. IT HAS AN ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 951 HPA WITH
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
FOLLOW NHC GUIDANCE FOR TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.
HURRICANE LEE WILL KEEP AWAY FROM LAND AND ITS EFFECTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO AN INDUCED
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE THAN EXTENDS INTO THE GREATER
ANTILLES. THE IMPACTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIMITED THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY A WEAK SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS
EXPECTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. ON TUESDAY...EAST
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON
WEDNESDAY...EAST AND SOUTH HISPANIOLA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM
AND EASTERN CUBA IS FORECAST A MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON THURSDAY...A
MOISTURE PLUME MOVING FROM THE NORTH OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA WILL
FAVOR PRECIPITATION. HISPANIOLA IS FORECAST FOR MAXIMA OF
20-35MM...AND CUBA IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF 15MM.
DRY AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED FROM AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO BRINGING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...AND INTO NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSING OF AN
EASTERLY WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WITH INCREASED UPPER DIVERGENCE ALONG WEST AND SOUTH MEXICO. ON
TUESDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM IN NORTHEAST CHIHUAHUA AND
NORTHWEST COAHUILA. FROM TABASCO/CHIAPAS INTO PORTIONS OF
HONDURAS/EL SALVADOR...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ELSEWHERE EXPECT
GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON WEDNESDAY...THE EASTERLY WAVE
WILL FAVOR A MAXIMA OF 20-45MM FROM SOUTH VERACRUZ/OAXACA...ALONG
SOUTH GUATEMALA...AND INTO EL SALVADOR. THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...INTO GUATEMALA AND NORTHERN HONDURAS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 15-25MM. ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND
OAXACA/GUERRERO...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON THURSDAY...SOUTHERN
GUERRERO...OAXACA...WESTERN CHIAPAS...AND SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ/TABASCO ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ALONG THE SIERRA
MADRE OCCIDENTAL...AND IN SOUTHERN GUATEMALA INTO EL
SALVADOR/SOUTHWEST HONDURAS...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. MAXIMA OF
15-25MM ARE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL MEXICO...NORTHERN
GUATEMALA/BELIZE...AND INTO NORTHERN HONDURAS/NICARAGUA.
A KELVIN WAVE IS PROPAGATING OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND
SOUTH AMERICA...PROVIDING MARGINAL ENHANCEMENT IN CONVECTION. A
WEAK SAHARAN AIR LAYER OVER COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA FAVORS
CONSERVATIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. TO THE EAST DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM
EASTERLY FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE GUIANAS. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY
FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED OVER
COLOMBIA...ECUADOR...AND WESTERN VENEZUELA TO FAVOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM FROM NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...INTO EASTERN PANAMA...AND ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF
COLOMBIA INTO ECUADOR. SOUTHERN VENEZUELA AND PORTIONS OF COLOMBIA
AND NORTH BRASIL CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. MAXIMA OF 15-25MM
ARE FORECAST FOR EASTERN NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...WESTERN
PANAMA...NORTHWEST VENEZUELA...AND CENTRAL COLOMBIA...INTO PERU
AND ECUADOR. ON WEDNESDAY...AN INCREASE IN WESTERLY FLOW AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER INTO WESTERN COLOMBIA WILL FAVOR A MAXIMA OF
30-60MM. MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ARE EXPECTED IN VENEZUELA...COLOMBIA
AND INTO ECUADOR AND PERU. ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA...EXPECT MAXIMA
TO REMAIN BELOW 25MM. ON THURSDAY...THE WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW OVER
WESTERN COLOMBIA CONTINUES AND FAVORS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...IN
ADDITION TO UPPER DIVERGENCE VENTILATION...WILL FAVOR MAXIMA
BETWEEN 40-80MM...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN PANAMA INTO WEST AND NORTH COLOMBIA. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
FROM EASTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...ECUADOR AND NORTHERN
PERU WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. VENEZUELA AND CENTRAL COLOMBIA
ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ELSEWHERE IN COSTA RICA...CENTRAL
VENEZUELA...COLOMBIA...AND NORTH PERU ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF
15-25MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 13/00 13/12 14/00 14/12 15/00 15/12 16/00 16/12
EW 21N 87W 89W 90W 92W 94W 95W 97W 99W 101W
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 87W AND SOUTH OF 21N. ON
TUESDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN HONDURAS...EL
SALVADOR...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...SOUTHERN CAMPECHE...TABASCO...AND
CHIAPAS. MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ARE EXPECTED IN YUCATAN...QUINTANA
ROO...AND NORTHERN CAMPECHE. ON WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM FROM SOUTHERN VERACRUZ/EASTERN OAXACA TO THE
GOLFO DE FONSECA REGION...AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN THE SOUTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...NORTHERN GUATEMALA...AND NORTH HONDURAS. ON
THURSDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM FROM GUERRERO TO
WESTERN CHIAPAS...AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ALONG THE EJE VOLCANICO
TRANSVERSAL.
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page