333
FXCA20 KWBC 131750
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
149 PM EDT WED SEP 13 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 13 SEP 2023 AT 1800 UTC: IN MEXICO...MOISTURE
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST IS CONVERGING OVER THE SIERRA MADRE
OCCIDENTAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. SIMILARLY THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY CONTINUES TO SEE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FROM HIGHER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AREA. TO THE EAST...DRY AIR
CONTINUES ADVECT OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AND IT
IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AN EASTERLY WAVE IS PROPAGATING OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ON WEDNESDAY...NORTH COLIMA...ALONG
THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL...AND GUERRERO/WEST OAXACA...CAN
EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-35MM. THE EASTERLY WAVE WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN CHIAPAS...TABASCO...SOUTHERN VERACRUZ AND
EAST OAXACA. WHILE OTHER PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY CAN EXPECT
GENERALIZED MAXIMA UNDER 25MM. ON THURSDAY...THE EASTERLY WAVE
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM FROM SOUTHERN GUERRERO TO WESTERN
CHIAPAS. ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL...CENTRAL MEXICO...AND
THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON
FRIDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT PROPAGATES OVER COAHUILA AND FAVORS STRONG
CONVECTION. NORTHERN COAHUILA AND NUEVO LEON CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-45MM. WEST COAHUILA INTO CENTRAL MEXICO ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
OCCIDENTAL CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. THE EASTERLY WAVE
PROPAGATES OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN
MICHOACAN AND GUERRERO. FROM SOUTHERN VERACRUZ...INTO OAXACA AND
TO CHIAPAS...AND TABASCO EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
OVER THE CARIBBEAN...A ROBUST INDUCED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH MAJOR
HURRICANE LEE EXTENDS OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS SEMI-STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE AREA CONTINUES TO FAVOR DRIER CONDITIONS WITH THE ASSISTANCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT AND WEAK SAHARAN AIR LAYER. ON
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN EAST CUBA AND
SOUTHEAST HISPANIOLA. ON THURSDAY...HISPANIOLA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM...WHILE CUBA AND JAMAICA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 15MM.
ON FRIDAY...HISPANIOLA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. CUBA IS
FORECAST MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...DRY AIR FROM A WEAK SAHARAN AIR LAYER OVER
THE AREA IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION AND CONSERVATIVE
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. AN EASTERLY WAVE PROPAGATES WEST AND MOVES
AWAY FROM THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERN GUATEMALA...AND EL
SALVADOR ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...WHILE NORTHEAST
GUATEMALA...BELIZE AND WEST HONDURAS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA ARE FORECAST SIMILAR AMOUNTS. ON
THURSDAY...RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERLY WAVE WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN SOUTHERN GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON FRIDAY...EL SALVADOR AND SOUTHERN GUATEMALA
ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...WHILE EAST NICARAGUA....EAST
COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...A KELVIN WAVE IS EXITING THE REGION
AND DRY EASTERLY TRADES MOVE INTO THE GUIANAS AND NORTHEAST BRASIL
ON WEDNESDAY. THE PANAMANIAN LOW EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...INTO PANAMA...AND INTO THE PACIFIC WEST SIDE OF
COLOMBIA. HIGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER NORTH AND WEST
COLOMBIA WILL ASSIST IN INCREASING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...IN ADDITION MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED
DUE TO OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS ALONG THE ANDES FROM COLOMBIA INTO
ECUADOR AND PERU DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON WEDNESDAY...WEST
AND CENTRAL COLOMBIA CAN SEE MAXIMA OF 30-60MM...WHILE ELSEWHERE
IN COLOMBIA AND INTO WEST VENEZUELA AND ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM. CENTRAL VENEZUELA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON
THURSDAY...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF
35-70MM IN SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...ECUADOR...AND NORTH-CENTRAL PERU.
WHILE ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE WEST INTO WEST COLOMBIA WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN
COLOMBIA...WEST VENEZUELA AND EAST PANAMA. ON FRIDAY...A DECREASE
IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS EASTERLY TRADES WEAKEN OVER THE
REGION. WEST COLOMBIA IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...AND THE LAKE
MARACAIBO REGION AND NORTH COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
ELSEWHERE IN EAST PANAMA...NORTHWEST AND SOUTH COLOMBIA...AND
VENEZUELA CAN EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS WITH MAXIMA BELOW 25MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 14/00 14/12 15/00 15/12 16/00 16/12 17/00 17/12
EW 21N 89W 92W 94W 96W 98W 100W 103W 106W 109W
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 89W AND SOUTH OF 21N. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM FROM SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ/EASTERN OAXACA TO THE GOLFO DE FONSECA REGION...AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...NORTHERN
GUATEMALA...AND NORTH HONDURAS. ON THURSDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM FROM GUERRERO TO WESTERN CHIAPAS...AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM ALONG THE EJE VOLCANICO TRANSVERSAL AND WEST TABASCO AND
NORTH CHIAPAS. ON FRIDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM
IN MICHOACAN AND GUERRERO AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN JALISCO AND
COLIMA.
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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