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FXCA20 KWBC 141243
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
842 AM EDT THU SEP 14 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI SEP 14/12UTC:
THE LOCAL WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TODAY..BUT ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
TO A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY FRIDAY...EASTERLY ON SATURDAY AND
THEN HAVING A NORTHEAST COMPONENT BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO
MONDAY. NEAR NORMAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL
BE MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN NEAR NORMAL ON
MONDAY...WHICH MEANS THAT THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS DELAYED THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE BY ABOUT ONE DAY FROM WHAT IT SUGGESTED
YESTERDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1.8 INCHES
TODAY...DECREASING TO AROUND 1.4 BY LATE TONIGHT...THEN STAYING
NEAR 1.6 INCHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE
AND VERY BRIEF PATCHES OF MOISTURE...BUT THEN PRECIPITABLE WATER
COULD INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES BY MONDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING DAILY AMOUNTS OF RAIN THAT DO NOT SURPASS ONE INCH
OVER ANY GIVEN AREA OF PR/USVI...BUT CONSIDERING LOCAL
EFFECTS...ISOLATED AREAS COULD OBSERVE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN WITH
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE.
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MORE GENERALIZED
RAINFALL TODAY WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SLOPES
OF PR...BUT MAX RAIN POSSIBLY STAYING NEAR HALF AN INCH.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD OCCUR ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
PR...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF
RAIN...BUT HAS THE POTENTIAL OF VERY ISOLATED AREAS WITH OVER A
HALF AN INCH OF RAIN. AS THE LOCAL WINDS START TO SHIFT TO A
SOUTHEASTERLY AND THEN EASTERLY DIRECTION ON FRIDAY AND THIS
WEEKEND...THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PR...WITH ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.25 INCHES EACH DAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ON MONDAY...THE LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR COULD OBSERVE BETWEEN 1.5
AND 2 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS ISOLATED AREAS. THE USVI
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A RELATIVELY BENIGN AND TYPICAL RAINFALL
PATTERN...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE 5-DAY
PERIOD.
THE 5-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST OVER 4 INCHES
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PR...WHILE THE USVI AND EASTERN PR IS FORECAST
BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.60 INCHES.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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