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FXCA20 KWBC 141721
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
121 PM EDT THU SEP 14 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 14 SEP 2023 AT 1730 UTC: IN MEXICO...AN EASTERLY
WAVE IS LOCATED OVER OAXACA AND SOUTHERN VERACRUZ AND WILL BRING
INCREASED PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN REGIONS
OF MEXICO...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA. TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGE ALONG THE SIERRA
MADRE OCCIDENTAL...CHIHUAHUA AND COAHUILA...WILL BRING
CONSERVATIVE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON THURSDAY. ALOFT...A
DISORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN IS DEVELOPING OVER MEXICO AND
CENTRAL AMERICA...ASSISTING WITH CONSERVATIVE VALUES OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ARE
EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND HIGHER PRECIPITATIONS COULD BE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-45MM FROM SOUTHEASTERN GUERRERO TO WESTERN CHIAPAS. MAXIMA OF
20-35MM IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN GUATEMALA...INTO SOUTH HONDURAS
AND EL SALVADOR. THE REST OF THE REGION CAN EXPECT MAXIMA UNDER
25MM. ON FRIDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
VENTILATION FOR CONVECTION OVER COAHUILA AND NORTHERN NUEVO
LEON...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN GUERRERO AND
OAXACA. JALISCO TO MICHOACAN...AND SOUTHERN GUATEMALA AND CHIAPAS
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON SATURDAY...THE EASTERLY WAVE IS
FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
20-45MM FROM SOUTHERN SONORA TO WESTERN JALISCO. MAXIMA OF 20-35MM
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE EJE VOLCANICO TRANSVERSAL INTO SOUTHERN
MICHOACAN AND GUERRERO. MORE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO. MAXIMA OF 30-60MM ARE EXPECTED
OVER NUEVO LEON AND PORTIONS OF EAST COAHUILA. ELSEWHERE IN
MEXICO...EXPECT MAXIMA TO REMAIN BELOW 25MM. NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA IS NOT EXPECTED TO SEE LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL AS DRIER
AIR MOVES FROM THE EAST.
NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN...HURRICANE LEE PROPAGATES NORTHWARD...AND
AN INDUCED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...PRODUCING THE LARGEST AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE OVER THE REGION...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...AIDED BY A WEAK SAHARAN LAYER IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ON
THURSDAY...THE INDUCED TROUGH WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-30MM IN
HISPANIOLA. CUBA AND JAMAICA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON
FRIDAY...HISPANIOLA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...AND CUBA IS
FORECAST MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON SATURDAY...HURRICANE LEE HAS MOVED
FURTHER NORTH AND THE INDUCED TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM
HISPANIOLA. A STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...SOUTH OF BERMUDA...AND NORTH OF THE
BAHAMAS...IS EXPECTED FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS. IN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA...MAXIMA OF 15-25MM
ARE EXPECTED.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...FAVORABLE
VENTILATION ALOFT IS EXPECTED OVER COLOMBIA...WEST VENEZUELA...AND
INTO ECUADOR AND PERU ON THURSDAY. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WEST
ONSHORE FLOW OVER WEST COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR IS EXPECTED TO ASSIST
IN MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE REGION. ALONG THE ANDEAN REGION
IN WEST VENEZUELA...CENTRAL COLOMBIA...AND SOUTH INTO EAST ECUADOR
AND NORTHEAST PERU...TRADE WINDS ARE COMING FROM THE EAST FAVORING
STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING IN THE
REGION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR LARGE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA. TO THE EAST...DRY
AIR CONTINUES OVER THE REGION WITH THE EAST TRADE WINDS. ON
THURSDAY...CENTRAL AND WEST COLOMBIA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF
40-80MM...SOUTH COLOMBIA...ECUADOR...AND NORTH PERU ARE FORECAST
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. FROM EAST PANAMA...INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN
COLOMBIA...AND WEST VENEZUELA...ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
COSTA RICA...WEST PANAMA...AND CENTRAL VENEZUELA ARE FORECAST
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON FRIDAY...THE TRADE WINDS BEGIN TO
DISORGANIZE AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DECREASE. HOWEVER...ONSHORE
FROM INTO SOUTHERN COSTA RICA AND WESTERN COLOMBIA CONTINUE AND
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN THESE AREAS. IN NORTH COLOMBIA AND
WESTERN VENEZUELA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ELSEWHERE IN THE
REGION...EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS WITH MAXIMA BELOW 25MM. ON
SATURDAY...SIMILAR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION. EASTERN NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND WEST PANAMA CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. THE NORTHERN BORDER BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA...CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. THE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OVER THE GUIANAS AND NORTHERN BRASIL/VENEZUELA WITH
THE PROPAGATION OF SURFACE TROUGHS. THIS REGION CAN EXPECT
ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. EAST PANAMA AND WEST COLOMBIA ARE
FORECAST SIMILAR AMOUNTS.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 15/00 15/12 16/00 16/12 17/00 17/12 18/00 18/12
EW 21N 94W 96W 98W 100W 103W 106W 109W 112W EXITS
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 94W AND SOUTH OF 21N. ON
THURSDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM FROM GUERRERO TO
WESTERN CHIAPAS...AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN SOUTHERN GUATEMALA.
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ARE FORECAST ALONG THE EJE VOLCANICO TRANSVERSAL
AND WEST TABASCO AND NORTH CHIAPAS. ON FRIDAY...THE WAVE WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN MICHOACAN AND GUERRERO AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM FROM JALISCO TO CENTRAL MICHOACAN. ON SATURDAY...THE WAVE
IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM FROM SINALOA TO WESTERN
JALISCO...AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN COLIMA...MICHOACAN AND INTO
CENTRAL MEXICO.
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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