371
FXUS01 KWBC 150759
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
358 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2023
VALID 12Z FRI SEP 15 2023 - 12Z SUN SEP 17 2023
...LEE CONTINUES TRACKING NORTH, TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG STORMS LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY...
...DRY CONDITIONS IN THE WEST WITH SOME MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS
EXPECTED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND...
HURRICANE LEE CONTINUES NORTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
BEGIN TO PASS CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY EVENING. WHILE THE
CENTER OF LEE IS CURRENTLY FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER (NHC) TO TRACK INTO NOVA SCOTIA, RELATED-HAZARDS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE
OF THE SYSTEM. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF
DOWNEAST MAINE CLOSEST TO THE FORECAST TRACK FOR LEE, WITH
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FURTHER SOUTHWEST
THROUGH COASTAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MASSACHUSETTS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ALSO FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD COASTAL NEW ENGLAND AND ACROSS MAINE
BY SATURDAY MORNING, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SOME LOCALIZED
INSTANCES OF FLOODING IN EASTERN MAINE WHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IS IN PLACE. IN ADDITION TO HIGH
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN, SWELLS GENERATED BY LEE WILL CONTINUE TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG THE
EAST COAST. HIGHS WILL BE MORE FALL-LIKE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WITH 60S AND 70S FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BUT STILL
RUNNING A BIT BELOW AVERAGE IN THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA, WITH
MOSTLY 80S FORECAST.
ELSEWHERE, AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP TO DRIVE A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
PLAINS, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. FURTHER SOUTH, A LINGERING
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AS WELL AS POOLING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD
STORM CHANCES AND HEAVIER RAINFALL. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS IN PLACE FOR WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY WHERE SOME
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY
RAIN, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
(LEVEL 2/5) FRIDAY AS SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE A
FEW INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL. HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY SEASONABLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST, RANGING FROM THE 70S TO
LOW 80S, AS WELL AS INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH 80S EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH BELOW
AVERAGE FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY, WITH SOME
60S IN THE FORECAST, BEFORE CONDITIONS MODERATE BACK INTO THE 70S
BY SATURDAY.
THE WEST IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY TO START THE WEEKEND AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES IN OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, AND NORTHERN ROCKIES,
WITH 80S AND EVEN SOME LOW 90S FORECAST. AFTER SOME COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
FRIDAY FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
BACK UP INTO THE 80S BY SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE RUNNING
NEAR AVERAGE ELSEWHERE IN THE WEST, WITH 60S AND 70S FOR COASTAL
CALIFORNIA, 80S AND 90S FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA VALLEYS, AND
90S TO LOW 100S FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
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