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FXCA20 KWBC 151228
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
827 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI SEP 15/12UTC:
THE LOCAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE WINDS WILL ALSO START SHIFTING FROM A SSE
DIRECTION THIS MORNING TO A SE DIRECTION BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...SHIFTING EASTERLY ON SATURDAY AND THEN WILL HAVE A
NORTHEAST COMPONENT BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY MONDAY.
NEAR NORMAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...THEN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE UP
AND DOWN BETWEEN 1.7 AND 2.0 INCHES TODAY...DECREASING TO AROUND
1.5 BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...STAYING NEAR 1.6 INCHES THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY...THEN INCREASING TO 1.7 INCHES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
STAYING BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.8 INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST DAILY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UNDER ONE
INCH OVER ANY GIVEN AREA OF PR/USVI...BUT CONSIDERING LOCAL
EFFECTS...ISOLATED AREAS COULD OBSERVE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN WITH
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE.
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TODAY WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR TO
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR...WHERE THE HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN COULD OCCUR...BUT OTHER AREAS OF THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR TO THE NORTH CENTRAL COULD ALSO OBSERVE SOME RAIN THOUGH
GENERALLY UNDER HALF AN INCH IS FORECAST. ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NE-PR...BUT
LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PR AND THE USVI TODAY. AS THE LOCAL WINDS START TO SHIFT TO AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION...WHILE REMAINING RELATIVELY LIGHT THIS
WEEKEND...THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR...WITH ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.25 INCHES EACH DAY ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. AS
MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY...THE LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR COULD OBSERVE
AROUND 1.25 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS ISOLATED AREAS.
THE USVI IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VERY MODEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE 5-DAY PERIOD.
THE 5-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 3.5 TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PR...WHILE THE USVI AND EASTERN PR IS FORECAST
BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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