524
FXCA20 KWBC 151822
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
222 PM EDT FRI SEP 15 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 15 SEP 2023 AT 1830 UTC: A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER GUERRERO EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO PORTION
OF NORTH CENTRAL AMERICA. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE IN NORTHERN MEXICO...PROVIDING VENTILATION FOR CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF MEXICO...AND EASTERLY WAVE IS MOVING WEST AND
WILL FAVOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. IN NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA...DRY AIR MOVING FROM THE EAST IS FAVORING DRIER
CONDITIONS AND CONSERVATIVE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. ON FRIDAY...NORTHEAST COAHUILA AND
NORTHERN NUEVO LEON CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. GUERRERO AND
WEST OAXACA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM
ARE EXPECTED FROM JALISCO AND ALONG THE EJE VOLANICO TRANSVERSAL.
FROM NICARAGUA....TO NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...AND INTO SOUTHERN
MEXICO...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN
NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. ON SATURDAY...MAXIMA IN COAHUILA AND NUEVO
LEON IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30-60MM...WHILE THE EASTERLY WAVE
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM FROM SINALOA TO JALISCO. MAXIMA OF
20-35MM ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR. ELSEWHERE
OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO...EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. ON SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION DECREASES OVER THE AREA AS DRY
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM
IS EXPECTED OVER MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.
IN THE CARIBBEAN...HURRICANE LEE IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND WARE FROM LAND. HOWEVER...AN INDUCED TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IT IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY. OVERALL...MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN. A WEAK MID LEVEL TRADE WIND INVERSION OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND NORTHERN CUBA/BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
OVER THE WEEKEND...DEBILITATING CONVECTION OVER THE REGION...AND
CONSERVATIVE AMOUNTS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
ON FRIDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED INDUCED TROUGH WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
20-45MM IN HISPANIOLA. CUBA IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON
SATURDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD
OF THE UNITED STATES APPROACHES THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...WHERE
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA ARE FORECAST
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON SUNDAY...THE GREATER ANTILLES ARE FORECAST
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.
IN SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS ARE BRINGING DRY AIR OVER THE
GUIANAS AND INTO SOUTHERN VENEZUELA AND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA IS ASSISTING WITH THE DRIER CONDITIONS
FURTHER WEST INTO COLOMBIA AND PERU ON FRIDAY...AND PROPAGATES
WEST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...LOW LEVEL TROUGHS
AND MOISTURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA OVER
THE WEEKEND AND BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...IN
THE HIGHER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST
CARIBBEAN...PROVIDING VENTILATION BY SUNDAY OVER EAST
NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...WEAK ONSHORE FLOW INTO WESTERN
COLOMBIA AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. IN
NORTH COLOMBIA INTO WEST VENEZUELA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN WEST
VENEZUELA...INTO SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...PERU...ECUADOR...AND PORTIONS
OF EAST NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA...AND VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25MM. ON SATURDAY...CENTRAL
VENEZUELA/SOUTH COLOMBIA...EAST NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND WEST
PANAMA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. EXTREME NORTHEAST
COLOMBIA/NORTHWEST VENEZUELA IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON SUNDAY...EAST
NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PANAMA ARE
FORECAST MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. SOUTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA...NORTH...AND
SOUTHEAST COLOMBIA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NICARAGUA...EAST PANAMA...COLOMBIA...VENEZUELA...AND NORTH
GUYANA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 16/00 16/12 17/00 17/12 18/00 18/12 19/00 19/12
EW 21N 98W 101W 103W 106W 109W 111W EXITS
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 98W AND SOUTH OF 21N. ON
FRIDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN MICHOACAN AND
GUERRERO AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM FROM JALISCO TO CENTRAL MICHOACAN.
ON SATURDAY...THE WAVE IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM FROM SINALOA
TO WESTERN JALISCO...AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN COLIMA...MICHOACAN
AND INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. BY SUNDAY...THE WAVE PROPAGATES OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND MINIMAL IMPACT TO LAND IS
EXPECTED.
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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