156
FXUS01 KWBC 151959
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
359 PM EDT FRI SEP 15 2023
VALID 00Z SAT SEP 16 2023 - 00Z MON SEP 18 2023
...LEE CONTINUES TRACKING NORTH, TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY...
...HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON...
...DRY CONDITIONS IN THE WEST, WITH SOME MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS
EXPECTED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND...
HURRICANE LEE CONTINUES A NORTHWARD TRACK THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE
CURRENT NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST CALLING FOR LEE TO
TRACK INTO NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY. WHILE THE CENTER OF LEE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN EAST OF NEW ENGLAND, THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
STORM WILL LEAD TO STORM IMPACTS DISPLACED WELL APART FROM LEE'S
CENTER. ACCORDINGLY, AN AREA OF TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS EXTENDS
ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE FROM RHODE ISLAND TO MAINE.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND COASTAL FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA THIS AFTERNOON, AND SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO LEAD TO
DOWNED TREES AND POTENTIAL POWER OUTAGES. ON THE RAINFALL SIDE OF
THINGS, HEAVY RAINFALL FROM LEE COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN EASTERN MAINE FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT, WHERE A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN
EFFECT TOMORROW. IN ADDITION TO HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN, SWELLS
GENERATED BY LEE WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST.
ELSEWHERE, AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP TO PUSH A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
PLAINS, DRIVING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
IS IN PLACE FOR WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY WHERE SOME LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN, THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (LEVEL 2/5)
FRIDAY AS SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE A FEW INSTANCES
OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.
THE WEST IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY TO START THE WEEKEND AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES IN OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, AND NORTHERN ROCKIES,
WITH 80S AND EVEN SOME LOW 90S FORECAST. THE WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS LOOK TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
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