865
FXCA20 KWBC 181816
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
216 PM EDT MON SEP 18 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 18 SEP 2023 AT 1830 UTC: OF NOTE IS HURRICANE
NIGEL OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...LOCATED NEAR
27.2N AND 51.4W AT 1500 UTC. IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MAJOR
IMPACT IN THE FORECAST REGION AND IT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE A
NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY AWAY FROM LAND. FOLLOW NHC GUIDANCE FOR TRACK
AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.
ADDITIONALLY...CFS FORECASTS ARE INDICATING THAT A KELVIN WAVE IS
PROPAGATING OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALTHOUGH
THE MJO IS CURRENTLY IN A CONVERGENT PHASE...THE PASSING OF THE
KELVIN WAVE WILL PROVIDE MARGINAL ENHANCEMENT IN CONVECTION.
A ROBUST UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERING TO THE WEST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA EXTENDS OVER MOST OF MEXICO. THIS
PATTERN IS FAVORING DRIER CONDITION IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF
THE COUNTRY AND LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. ALONG THE SOUTH
AND WEST...TROUGHS AND EASTERLY WAVES IN THE LOWER LEVELS ARE
FAVORING PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WEST AND SOUTH WILL PERSIST AS
THE DISTURBANCES PROPAGATE WEST. ON MONDAY...THE NORTHWEST YUCATAN
PENINSULA...GUERRERO...AND WEST OAXACA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF
15-25MM...WHILE SINALOA AND NAYARIT CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM.
ON TUESDAY...THE CENTRAL SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL IS FORECAST
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...WHILE ELSEWHERE IN MEXICO...EXPECT MAXIMA TO
NOT EXCEED 25MM. ON WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT
INTENSIFIES...FAVORING DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. MOST RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. THE NORTH-CENTRAL
SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL...AND NAYARIT/JALISCO CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR...EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-25MM.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...THE EASTERLY TRADES FAVOR OROGRAPHIC LIFTING
ALONG THE EASTERN SHORES OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.
ADDITIONALLY...A ROBUST TROUGH IS ORGANIZING OVER PANAMA...AND IT
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN PROPAGATING WEST ON TUESDAY...WHEN COSTA RICA
AND PANAMA CAN EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL. BY WEDNESDAY...THE INCREASE
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER...AND ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE EAST WILL FAVOR
HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR. ON
MONDAY...AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN WESTERN
GUATEMALA...AND MAXIMA OF 15MM FROM BELIZE...TO EL SALVADOR. THE
STRENGTHENING TROUGH OVER PANAMA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN
PANAMA AND SOUTH COSTA RICA. NORTH COSTA RICA AND SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON TUESDAY...COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 30-60MM...AND EAST NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHEAST
HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND NICARAGUA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
35-70MM. COSTA RICA IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...WHILE
ELSEWHERE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...MAXIMA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED
25MM.
IN THE CARIBBEAN...A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES...FLORIDA...AND IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE
BAHAMAS AND CUBA...WHICH WILL FAVOR PRECIPITATION IN THE ISLANDS
ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND
WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. TO THE SOUTH...THE
LESSER ANTILLES COULD EXPECT PRECIPITATION FROM A TROPICAL WAVE
ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY. ON MONDAY...THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. THE REST OF THE BAHAMAS...TURKS AND
CAICOS...CUBA..AND HISPANIOLA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON
TUESDAY...WESTERN HISPANIOLA IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...DUE
TO AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE AREA. THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...AND EAST CUBA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. THE REST
OF THE AREA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA TO NOT EXCEED 25MM. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE BAHAMAS...EAST-CENTRAL CUBA...AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.THE TURKS AND
CAICOS...WEST CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. THE LESSER ANTILLES COULD SEE MAXIMA OF
15MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER PANAMA EXTENDS INTO WEST COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR...INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE REGION. LOW LEVEL TROUGHS IN COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA ARE FAVORING PRECIPITATION OVER THE COUNTRIES ON MONDAY.
DRY AIR IN THE EASTERLY TRADES ARE FAVORING DRIER CONDITIONS OVER
THE GUIANAS AND NORTHERN BRAZIL. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. ON MONDAY...ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE WEST
INTO WESTERN COLOMBIA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. ELSEWHERE IN
COLOMBIA AND INTO WEST-CENTRAL VENEZUELA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ARE EXPECTED OVER IN EXTREME SOUTH
VENEZUELA...COLOMBIA...AND SURINAME AND FRENCH GUIANA. ON
TUESDAY...OROGRAPHIC LIFTING ALONG THE ANDES MOUNTAINS IN COLOMBIA
AND VENEZUELA FROM THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE
IN PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONALLY...ONSHORE FLOW INTO WESTERN
COLOMBIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FAVOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
AREA. FROM WESTERN VENEZUELA...THROUGH CENTRAL COLOMBIA...AND INTO
WESTERN COLOMBIA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. NORTHWEST COLOMBIA
CAN SEE MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ELSEWHERE IN THE REGION...MAXIMA ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 25MM. ON WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST
COLOMBIA...AND FROM SOUTHERN VENEZUELA INTO SOUTHERN COLOMBIA CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES EXTENDS INTO NORTHER VENEZUELA AND TRINIDAD AND
TOBAGO...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 19/00 19/12 20/00 20/12 21/00 21/12 22/00 22/12
TW 10N 42W 45W 48W 51W 54W 56W 58W 60W 61W
TW 18N 52W 54W 57W 59W 61W 63W 64W 65W 67W
EW 16N 89W 92W 94W 97W 100W 103W 105W 107W 110W
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 42W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 10N. IT
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...MAKING IT TO LAND BY WEDNESDAY. DRY AIR IS EXPECTED IN THE
EASTERLY TRADES WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE AND LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED OVER SURINAME AND FRENCH GUIANA.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 52W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 18N. IT
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
UNTIL WEDNESDAY...WHERE IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN THE
LESSER ANTILLES...AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN NORTHEAST VENEZUELA.
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 89W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 16N. ON
MONDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA INTO NORTHWEST GUATEMALA...AND SOUTH VERACRUZ AND EAST
OAXACA. EAST GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. ON TUESDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN
OAXACA AND GUERRERO. ON WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
20-35MM IN JALISCO/NAYARIT...AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ALONG
COLIMA...MICHOACAN...AND GUERRERO.
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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