457
FXUS01 KWBC 181930
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
329 PM EDT MON SEP 18 2023
VALID 00Z TUE SEP 19 2023 - 00Z THU SEP 21 2023
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE STORM CHANCES RETURN TO PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...
...ABOVE AVERAGE HEAT FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH
MID-WEEK...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTH ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WILL CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST. WITH WARM, MOIST AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION, PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, AND MUCH OF MAINE AND PARTS OF
VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE COULD RECEIVE AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES
OF RAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, AND THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) FOR AREAS FROM RHODE
ISLAND TO CENTRAL MAINE. AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
LEE OVER THE WEEKEND MAY BE PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE TO FLOODING
BECAUSE THE SOILS ARE ALREADY SATURATED. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PUSH INTO CANADA ON TUESDAY AND RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE.
WET WEATHER IS ALSO FORECAST TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTEND BACK ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR FLORIDA, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN URBAN AREAS AND AREAS
WITH POOR DRAINAGE. IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT,
WHICH WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (LEVEL 2/5) FOR THIS AREA.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING, AND THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF OKLAHOMA.
ELSEWHERE, SCATTERED SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXPAND INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST.
ABOVE AVERAGE HEAT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK FOR
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 10-20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW-TO-MID 80S TO THE MID 90S ACROSS THE REGION. WARMTH WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST, REACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WEST, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 10-20
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE LATER THIS WEEK AFTER THE UPPER LOW MOVES
IN. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY
WEDNESDAY, THEN EXPAND INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
DOLAN
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