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FXCA20 KWBC 221249
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
849 AM EDT FRI SEP 22 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI SEP 22/12UTC:
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY INTO SATURDAY
AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES AWAY...BUT A SHARP INCREASE IN MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
IN. THIS WOULD TRANSLATE TO PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASING FROM
AROUND 2 INCHES THIS MORNING DOWN TO 1.7 INCHES TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY THEN POSSIBLY INCREASING UP TO 2.4 INCHES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. IN TERMS OF RAINFALL COVERAGE OVER THE AREA...A
TYPICAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED. THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR IS
EXPECTED TO OBSERVE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EACH OTHER AFTERNOON IN THE NEXT 5
DAYS...THOUGH OTHER SECTIONS OF PR HAVE ALSO A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SECTIONS OF EASTERN
PR ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE USVI IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY...CAUSING RAINFALL TOTALS THAT RANGE
FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO PER DAY.
BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...THE WETTEST PERIOD WOULD BE ON
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES IN AND CAUSES THE
SHARP INCREASE IN MOISTURE THAT IS EXPECTED FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR...BUT SOME AREAS OF THE EASTERN
THIRD OF PR AND THE SAN JUAN METRO MAY OBSERVE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN ARE FORECAST FOR THE
WESTERN TO NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR TODAY...BUT ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. CLOSE TO A HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN PR TODAY...AND AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH
IS FORECAST FOR THE USVI. LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DECREASE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
ALSO SUGGESTING THAT THE RAINFALL PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE
MUCH...WITH NORTHWESTERN PR HAVING THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER...FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE EXPECTED
AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN PR ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...THE
ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH COULD CAUSE EASTERN PR TO OBSERVE OVER AN IN CH OF
RAIN INTO MONDAY MORNING. NEAR NORMAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH EASTERLY WINDS. THIS WILL CAUSE A TYPICAL
RAINFALL PATTERN OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
PR/USVI...WITH MORNING AND EVENING BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS USVI AND
EASTERN PR...WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR.
THE 5-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 TO 6 INCHES
ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR TO NORTHWEST PR...EASTERN PR IS
FORECAST AROUND 2.5 INCHES...WHILE THE USVI IS FORECAST BETWEEN
0.50 AND 0.75 INCHES.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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