859
FXUS01 KWBC 242003
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
402 PM EDT SUN SEP 24 2023
VALID 00Z MON SEP 25 2023 - 00Z WED SEP 27 2023
...THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SECOND
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAIN AND MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
..THERE ARE HEAT ADVISORIES OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
..AIR QUALITY ALERTS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
FORMER TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA HAS BECOME A NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OUT OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MONDAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL
MOIST AIR OFF THE ATLANTIC, PRODUCING AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN OVER
PARTS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, MOST OF NEW JERSEY, EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE/LONG ISLAND, AND CONNECTICUT.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST
VULNERABLE.
MEANWHILE, A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY MONDAY EVENING.
THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO CREATE SHOWERS
AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS. THEREFORE,
THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A SMALL SECTION OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
IN ADDITION, THE FRONT WILL ALSO CREATE AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN OVER
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA, SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS, NORTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA, AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. THEREFORE, THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND
SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
FURTHERMORE, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL AID IN
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY. THEREFORE,
THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE
MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS,
AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ON MONDAY, THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL DECREASES SLIGHTLY TO A MARGINAL RISK OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ON TUESDAY, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
AND THE SOUTHEAST.
MOREOVER, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER TEXAS AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S NEAR 100 AND DEW POINTS IN THE
MID-70S HAVE PROMPTED HEAT ADVISORIES OVER EASTERN TEXAS. NEXT,
SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN CALIFORNIA WILL REDUCE AIR QUALITY OVER
PARTS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, PROMPTING AIR QUALITY WARNINGS OVER
THE AREA.
LASTLY, A FRONT MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY
TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE A PLUME OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT, CREATING RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, A
COMPONENT OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL AID IN CONTINUING THE RAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
ZIEGENFELDER
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HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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