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FXCA20 KWBC 251245
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
845 AM EDT MON SEP 25 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI SEP 25/12UTC:
ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE WILL LINGER TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
BUT WILL DECREASE STARTING TONIGHT...BEING BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN PERSISTING NEAR NORMAL FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
THIS WOULD TRANSLATE TO PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM NEAR 2.2 INCHES
TODAY DOWN TO 1.6 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN NEAR 1.8 TO
2.0 INCHES FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. IN TERMS OF RAINFALL COVERAGE
OVER THE AREA...A TYPICAL PATTERN OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN PR AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PR AND THE USVI IS
EXPECTED EACH DAY THIS WEEK. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE HI-RES
MODELS HAVE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN BOTH THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
FORECAST AND THE LOCATION...POSSIBLY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOONS THAT THE HI-RES
MODELS MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON. THEREFORE...FOR TODAY...THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE FORECAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL PR. THAT
SAID...THE LOCAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE EAST IN THE
MORNING THOUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT A SLIGHT NORTHEAST COMPONENT
COULD OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...SO THERE MAY BE SOME
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AFFECTING NOT ONLY WEST CENTRAL...BUT ALSO
INTO SAN SEBASTIAN AND MOCA MUNICIPALITIES...AS WELL AS POSSIBLE
LATE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY INTO NORTHERN CABO ROJO AND HORMIGUEROS
MUNICIPALITIES. PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN PR COULD OBSERVE
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS TODAY AS WELL. BASED ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE...TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WETTEST DAY...THOUGH
WEDNESDAY IS A CLOSE SECOND.
IN TERMS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE ABOUT 1.5 INCHES OVER WESTERN PR...BUT
HIGHER ISOLATED AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. BETWEEN 0.5 AND 0.75 INCHES
ARE FORECAST FOR NORTHEASTERN PR...WHILE THE USVI IS EXPECTED TO
OBSERVE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN. A SLIGHT SHIFT
TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CAUSE THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION TOMORROW TO
BE MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST PR...BUT THE DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT THE
COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF RAIN EXPECTED...THEREFORE LESS THAN 1 INCH
IS FORECAST OVER A LIMITED AREA...WITH LOWER AMOUNTS TO NO RAIN
ELSEWHERE. A RETURN TO EASTERLY WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
BEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAY CAUSE THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO
FAVOR WEST CENTRAL PR ONCE AGAIN WITH TOTALS NEAR 1.5
INCHES...WHILE NORTHEAST PR IS FORECAST TO HAVE UNDER HALF AN INCH
OF RAIN AND THE USVI IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH.
THE 5-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 3 TO 3.5 INCHES
ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR...NORTH EASTERN PR IS FORECAST
AROUND 1.5 INCHES...WHILE THE USVI IS FORECAST BETWEEN 0.25 AND
0.50 INCHES.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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