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FXCA20 KWBC 281249
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
849 AM EDT THU SEP 28 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI SEP 28/12UTC:
THE MAIN STORY IS THE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE OVER PR/USVI THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS PHILIPPE JUST DRIFTING WEST FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BUT STAYING TO THE EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THAT BEING
SAID...THE RAINFALL PATTERN EXPECTED OVER PR/USVI FROM SATURDAY
INTO MONDAY HAS NOT CHANGED THAT SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE EXPECTED
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WOULD CAUSE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AFFECT
THE USVI AS WELL AS NORTH AND EASTERN PR...THEN ACROSS SOUTHWEST
PR IN THE AFTERNOONS.
FROM TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 2.1 AND 1.7 INCHES...WHICH IS IN THE NORMAL RANGE
FOR THE DATE...BUT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATE ON SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE....MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE...BUT THERE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE AS
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT. THE RAINFALL COVERAGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY TYPICAL...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PR...WHILE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR AND
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SLOPES. THEN FROM SATURDAY ONWARD...THE
AFOREMENTIONED RAINFALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED...WHICH STILL FAVORS
NORTHEAST PR AND THE USVI...THEN SOME RAIN COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN PR DUE TO SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
IN TERMS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE OVER AN INCH OF RAIN OVER SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERN PR...AND NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN PR...MINIMAL RAIN IS FORECAST OVER THE USVI. FRIDAY
IS FORECAST TO HAVE AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SLOPES
TO SOUTHWESTERN PR...WHILE AROUND AN INCH OR SO IS FORECAST FOR
AREAS NEAR THE CAYEY MOUNTAIN RANGE...THOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. UNDER A HALF AN INCH IS FORECAST ELSEWHERE
IN PR AND UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE USVI. FOR THE
WEEKEND...BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...THE TOTAL RAINFALL FROM
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY COULD BE IN THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
THE NORTH AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PR...AS WELL AS SOUTHWESTERN PR
AND THE NORTHERN USVI. 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR ST CROIX AND
OTHER AREAS IN PR. THIS FORECAST HAS VERY HIGH UNCERTAINTY AS IT
MAY BE INFLUENCED BY THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF PHILIPPE.
THE 5-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 3 TO 3.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR...NORTH EASTERN AND AREAS
OF SOUTHEASTERN PR IS FORECAST BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES...WHILE THE
USVI IS FORECAST 1 TO 2 INCHES.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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