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FXCA20 KWBC 281804
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
204 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 28 SEP 2023 AT 1800 UTC: THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER IS MONITORING TWO TROPICAL STORMS IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE...WHICH HAS AN UNCERTAINTY THAT IS HIGHER
THAN NORMAL...AND THE NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM RINA. BOTH
TROPICAL STORMS ARE FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO
REMAIN AWAY FROM LAND AREAS IN THE CARIBBEAN...BUT TROPICAL STORM
PHILIPPE...JUST DRIFTING WEST AT THIS POINT...COULD CAUSE SOME
BANDING OR LOCALLY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO PR/USVI THIS WEEKEND.
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE NE COAST OF THE US WILL MOVE INTO
THE NW ATLANTIC. A TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...IS STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS ALSO A SLOW MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91W BRINGING MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
IN THE MID LEVELS...A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED IN THE
ATLANTIC...WITH ITS CENTER TO THE NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. A
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO IS HELPING THE INSTABILITY AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE NORTH
PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...MOVING WEST INTO CENTRAL AMERICA BY
THIS WEEKEND...WHICH WILL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA TODAY...THEN ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA THIS WEEKEND.
IN MEXICO...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO OBSERVE RAINFALL EACH DAY OVER THE 3-DAY FORECAST
PERIOD...DUE TO THE SURFACE TROUGH...AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO BE THE
WETTEST PERIOD ACROSS THE AREA...AS IT HAS SUPPORT FROM AN UPPER
TROUGH. RAINFALL TOTALS ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL HAVE MAX
VALUES OF 25-50MM. LESSER AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH MAX VALUES BETWEEN 20-35MM
AND 15-25MM RESPECTIVELY. THE WEST COAST OF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED
TO OBSERVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FOR THE NEXT 3
DAYS...THOUGH GENERALLY IN THE ORDER OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAX UP TO
25MM...EXCEPT A SMALL SECTIONS OVER WESTERN JALISCO...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO OBSERVE 25-50MM ACROSS ISOLATED AREAS. EAST CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMAULIPAS IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE RAIN
EACH DAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH MAX TOTALS IN THE RANGE OF
10-20MM.
IN THE CARIBBEAN...MOST OF THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
IS EXPECTED TO BE DUE TO BRIEF SHOWERS. LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT ISOLATED AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN PR
AND PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY...WHICH
COULD AMOUNT TO OVER 25MM....THOUGH THIS WOULD BE ACROSS ISOLATED
AREAS. OTHERWISE...BRIEF SHOWERS WOULD AFFECT THE WINDWARD SIDE OF
THE GREATER ANTILLES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO 10MM WOULD BE
GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND USVI EACH
DAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE VERY ISOLATED AREAS THAT WERE
MENTIONED. 10-15MM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES EACH DAY
FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...THE MOISTURE THAT IS AVAILABLE WILL HELP IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MOST AREAS OF CENTRAL AMERICA ARE FORECAST TO HAVE SOME
RAIN...WITH THE MAX TOTALS RANGING BETWEEN 15 AND 35MM. THAT
SAID...PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA AND WESTERN EL SALVADOR COULD HAVE AS
MUCH AS 40-80MM ON TODAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE TROPICAL AFFECTS THE
AREA...LOWER AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE FORECAST ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...UP TO 25MM...BUT MAX TOTALS OF 20-35MM ARE FORECAST FOR
GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...WESTERN COLOMBIA INTO WESTERN ECUADOR
ARE THE AREAS WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH TOTALS UP TO AROUND 50MM. NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA AND MOST OF
VENEZUELA ARE EXPECTED TO OBSERVE UP TO 45MM TODAY...BUT FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY LOOKS MUCH DRIER WITH TOTALS UP TO 25MM. SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY COULD HAVE MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL TO
EASTERN COLOMBIA...WITH RAINFALL UP TO 50MM. NORTHERN PERU AND
EASTERN ECUADOR ARE FORECAST TO OBSERVE GENERALLY 05-10MM AND UP
TO 20MM TODAY...WITH RAINFALL INCREASING ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
UP TO 60MM...THEN DOWN TO A MAX OF 15-25MM ON SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THE GUIANAS ARE STILL FORECAST TO OBSERVE MINIMAL RAINFALL
EACH DAY...IF ANY. ONLY NORTHWEST GUYANA MAY HAVE RAINFALL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH MAX TOTALS IN THE 15-20MM RANGE TODAY
AND 20-35MM FRIDAY INTO EARLY EARLY SATURDAY.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 29/00 29/12 30/00 30/12 01/00 01/12 02/00 02/12
TW 19N 91W 92W 94W 95W 97W 99W 100W 102W 104W
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 91W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 19N. IT
HAS ABUNDANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND IT IS OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS TROPICAL WAVE COULD BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO ON TODAY INTO
FRIDAY.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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