188
FXCA20 KWBC 291242
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
842 AM EDT FRI SEP 29 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI SEP 29/12UTC:
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL BE UNDER A PERSISTENT
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS TROPICAL
STORM PHILIPPE REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND EVENTUALLY MOVES NORTH...BUT REMAINING TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CAUSE
AN ADVECTIVE RAINFALL PATTERN FOR THE USVI AND NORTH AND EAST PR
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR
MAY OBSERVE AFTERNOON CONVECTION LEADING TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL
PEAK ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.4
INCHES...AND WILL BOTTOM OUT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AT AROUND 1.4
INCHES...OTHERWISE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN
THE 5-DAY PERIOD. IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF
PHILIPPE...THE OVERALL RAINFALL PATTERN ACROSS PR/USVI IS EXPECTED
TO BE AS DESCRIBED ABOVE AS LONG AS THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH THE AMOUNTS MAY CHANGE
BASED ON THE OVERALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE WHICH COULD CHANGE WITH
THE EXACT LOCATION OF PHILIPPE. THAT MEANS THAT AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PR IS EXPECTED
EACH DAY WHEN THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING.
NORTH AND EAST PR AS WELL AS THE USVI WOULD HAVE OFF AND ON SHOWER
ACTIVITY THAT COULD DEPEND ON THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE EACH DAY.
THAT BEING SAID...1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS COULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREAS WITH HEAVIEST
RAINFALL...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SLOPES TO SOUTHWESTERN PR.
THE 5-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 4 TO 4.5 INCHES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR...NORTH EASTERN AND AREAS
OF SOUTHEASTERN PR IS FORECAST BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES...WHILE THE
USVI IS FORECAST AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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