091
FXCA20 KWBC 291818
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
218 PM EDT FRI SEP 29 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 29 SEP 2023 AT 1800 UTC: (CORRECTION) THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING TWO TROPICAL STORMS IN THE
ATLANTIC BASIN. TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE...WHICH CONTINUES TO HAVE
A HIGHER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY...AND TROPICAL STORM RINA. BOTH
TROPICAL STORMS ARE FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO
REMAIN AWAY FROM LAND AREAS IN THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...TROPICAL
STORM PHILIPPE IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY AND...COULD CAUSE AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND THEN CAUSE LOCALLY
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO
PR/USVI THIS WEEKEND.
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE EAST COAST OF CANADA WILL MOVE
INTO THE NW ATLANTIC. A SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST EAST OF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OF THE US AND MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST. A
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE
IS ALSO A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W BRINGING MOISTURE AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. IN
THE MID LEVELS...A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED IN THE
ATLANTIC...WITH ITS CENTER TO THE NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES
UNTIL SATURDAY. FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...A TILTED MID-LEVEL
TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THERE
IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE NORTH
PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...MOVING WEST INTO CENTRAL AMERICA
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WHICH WILL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THIS WEEKEND.
IN MEXICO...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO OBSERVE RAINFALL EACH DAY OVER THE 3-DAY FORECAST
PERIOD...DUE TO THE SURFACE TROUGH. TODAY INTO SATURDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE THE WETTEST PERIOD ACROSS THE AREA...WITH RAINFALL
TOTALS UP TO 35MM ON THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE PENINSULA AND UP TO
60MM ON THE SOUTHERN PARTS. RAINFALL TOTALS ON SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WILL HAVE MAX VALUES OF 15-25MM IN MOST AREAS...BUT A SMALL
PORTION OF THE PENINSULA IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE UP TO 45MM. LESSER
AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE WEST COAST OF
OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO OBSERVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS...THOUGH GENERALLY IN THE ORDER OF
05-10MM/DAY WITH MAX UP TO 25MM. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SECTIONS OVER
FROM JALISCO TO OAXACA ARE FORECAST TO OBSERVE 20-35MM. EAST
CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMAULIPAS IS FORECAST TO
OBSERVE RAIN TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH MAX TOTALS UP TO
10MM...BUT MINIMAL RAIN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
IN THE CARIBBEAN...MOST OF THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
IS EXPECTED TO BE DUE TO BRIEF SHOWERS UNDER A NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW. LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT
ISOLATED AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN PR AND PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY...WHICH COULD AMOUNT TO OVER 25-35MM.
OTHERWISE...BRIEF SHOWERS WOULD AFFECT THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE
GREATER ANTILLES. THE ADVECTED SHOWERS EXPECTED MAY CAUSE RAINFALL
TOTALS OF UP TO 10MM ACROSS HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND USVI EACH
DAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE VERY ISOLATED AREAS THAT WERE
MENTIONED. 10-15MM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES EACH DAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...THE MOISTURE THAT IS AVAILABLE WILL HELP IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MOST AREAS OF CENTRAL AMERICA ARE FORECAST TO HAVE SOME
RAIN...WITH THE MAX TOTALS RANGING BETWEEN 15 AND 35MM. THAT
SAID...PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA AND WESTERN EL SALVADOR COULD HAVE AS
MUCH AS 30-60MM TODAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THE TRAILING MOISTURE
FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE AREA. THEN MAX TOTALS OF 20-45MM
ARE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THEN LESSER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...SOUTHWESTERN COLOMBIA INTO ECUADOR ARE
THE AREAS WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH TOTALS UP TO AROUND 60MM AS WELL AS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA AND MOST OF VENEZUELA ARE EXPECTED TO
OBSERVE UP TO 25MM TODAY. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY COULD HAVE MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL TO EASTERN COLOMBIA...WITH
RAINFALL UP TO 45MM. NORTHEASTERN PERU IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE
GENERALLY 05-10MM AND UP TO 25MM TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE GUIANAS ARE STILL FORECAST TO OBSERVE MINIMAL RAINFALL EACH
DAY...IF ANY.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 30/00 30/12 01/00 01/12 02/00 02/12 03/00
03/12
TW 19N 95W 97W 100W 102W 104W 106W 108W 110W
112W
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 95W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 19N. IT
HAS ABUNDANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND IT IS OVER SOUTHERN
MEXICO. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS TROPICAL...WITH ITS TRAILING MOISTURE WAVE
COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO
TODAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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