418
FXUS01 KWBC 010737
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
336 AM EDT SUN OCT 01 2023
VALID 12Z SUN OCT 01 2023 - 12Z TUE OCT 03 2023
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA ON SUNDAY AND OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
ON MONDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY...
...HEAVY SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
UTAH...
ON SUNDAY, TROPICAL MOISTURE AND A LINGERING FRONT OVER FLORIDA
WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE,
THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS
OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE
MOST VULNERABLE. THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DECREASES ON
MONDAY OVER FLORIDA. HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND
CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EASTWARD TO THE ROCKIES. RAIN AND, IN SOME PLACES, HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND CALIFORNIA/THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING. PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN UTAH WILL GET
HEAVY SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
MOREOVER, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE
10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER PARTS OF CALIFORNIA, THE GREAT
BASIN, THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, AND THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. FURTHERMORE, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE GULF
COAST TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE 15 TO
25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST.
IN ADDITION, AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ALSO, A WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DISSIPATE BY
TUESDAY, CREATING RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY.
THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY,
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO
AND WESTERN TEXAS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. ADDITIONALLY, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LASTLY, ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL AID IN
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF
COAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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