431
FXUS01 KWBC 011954
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
354 PM EDT SUN OCT 01 2023
VALID 00Z MON OCT 02 2023 - 00Z WED OCT 04 2023
...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EACH DAY...
...RECORD-HEAT CONTINUING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL U.S. ON
MONDAY, SHIFTING INTO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
AREAS OF PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW, WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR
MOST AREAS WEST OF THE ROCKIES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL TO
BELOW-AVERAGE ON MONDAY, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SPREADING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY.
MOIST, SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WHILE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS TO FORM LATER TODAY, THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS ON MONDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT, HEAVY RAINFALL, RESULTING IN EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND
FLOODING, IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
AS THE SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN U.S. CONTINUES TO DRIFT FARTHER EAST,
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER TO THE
NORTH, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINNING BY LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY. THERE IS THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS WITHIN THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY.
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTO THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK, WITH ANOTHER DAY OF
NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES FORECAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST
TEXAS ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY, THE CORE OF THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM
TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FARTHER EAST, WITH SEVERAL
RECORD HIGHS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHEAST.
MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. WILL BE DRY AS WELL, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING CENTERED OVER THE REGION INTO MIDWEEK. FLORIDA WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY EXCEPTION, WHERE A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND STORMS AND THE THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
PEREIRA
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page