021
FXUS01 KWBC 040753
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
352 AM EDT WED OCT 04 2023
VALID 12Z WED OCT 04 2023 - 12Z FRI OCT 06 2023
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...
...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY. A SECONDARY FRONT
MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM WEST-CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND
REINFORCE THE LEAD FRONT BY THURSDAY EVENING. TROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS, SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA, AND EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MODERATE
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAIN WILL CREATE NUMEROUS AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. FURTHERMORE,
MANY STREAMS MAY FLOOD, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING LARGER RIVERS.
MOREOVER, THE BOUNDARY WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. THEREFORE, THE SPC
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. FURTHER, THE
FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
ADDITIONALLY, ON THURSDAY, THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL
DECREASE TO A MARGINAL RISK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/WESTERN GULF
COAST, AS THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT ENDS WITH JUST SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD TO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MEANWHILE, AS THE SECONDARY FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD, MAINLY RAIN AND
A FEW SCATTERED HIGHEST ELEVATIONS SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY, THE RAIN WILL MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY EVENING.
FURTHERMORE, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER PARTS OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY, LOWER GREAT LAKES, AND THE
NORTHEAST. NEXT, ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL AID IN
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY, OVERNIGHT THURSDAY, MOISTURE
FROM THE ATLANTIC MOVES INTO PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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