567
FXCA20 KWBC 041246
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
846 AM EDT WED OCT 04 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI OCT 04/12UTC:
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE IS NOW LOCATED OVER 150 MILES TO THE NNW
OF ST THOMAS AND CONTINUES TO MOVE OT THE NW. HOWEVER...THE TJUA
DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
USVI...SOUTHEASTERN PR AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS ADJUSTED AND NOW IT SHOWS A MAXIMUM OF RAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PR...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA AS WELL
AS THE USVI. THE RAINFALL FORECAST FOR TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
IS 3 - 4 INCHES FOR THE SOUTH AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PR...AS WELL
AS VIEQUES...CULEBRA..AND THE USVI. THIS IS DUE TO A STRONG FEEDER
BAND THAT IS MOVING SLOWLY AND AFFECTING THE AREA...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...THEN ANOTHER...BUT WEAKER
BAND COULD DEVELOP TOMORROW. THE LOCAL RAINFALL PATTERN FROM
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL ALSO BE AFFECTED BY THE TRACK OF
PHILIPPE...AS THE STORM WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO HAVE A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT AND MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED FROM THE SOUTH. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON COULD HAVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE...WHILE SATURDAY WOULD HAVE RAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL
MUNICIPALITIES WITH THE NORTH COASTAL BEING THE DRIEST AREA.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN PR...CAUSING OVER AN INCH OF RAIN WHILE OTHER AREAS
RECEIVE MINIMAL RAINFALL.
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...MOST OF THE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS DESCRIBED
ABOVE...WITH TODAY AND THURSDAY BEING THE WETTEST DAYS.
HOWEVER...THE 5-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 4 TO 5
INCHES FOR THE SOUTHERN TO EASTERN SECTIONS OF PR...AND 3 TO 4
ACROSS VIEQUES..CULEBRA...AND THE USVI.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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