484
FXUS01 KWBC 050736
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
335 AM EDT THU OCT 05 2023
VALID 12Z THU OCT 05 2023 - 12Z SAT OCT 07 2023
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST ON THURSDAY AND THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY...
...THERE IS A FREEZE WATCH OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...
...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVER PARTS
OF THE NORTHEAST...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SATURDAY. A
SECONDARY FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD TO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY AND REINFORCE THE LEAD FRONT.
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THE TEXAS
COAST, LOUISIANA COAST, SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI, AND SOUTHWESTERN
ALABAMA. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST
VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN WILL CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, AFFECTING
AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY RAIN.
MOREOVER, THE BOUNDARY WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST ON THURSDAY.
THE BOUNDARY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CREATE RAIN OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY EVENING. OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, LAKE-ENHANCED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES.
ADDITIONALLY, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. ON FRIDAY, RAIN
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST,
PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF NEW YORK STATE,
PENNSYLVANIA, NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA, NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, AND
MASSACHUSETTS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, LOWER GREAT LAKES,
AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY
RAIN.
MEANWHILE, ON THURSDAY, ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL AID IN
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA.
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY, ONSHORE FLOW WILL STREAM MOISTURE INTO PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
OVER PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
FURTHERMORE, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
NORTHEAST, WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST. IN CONTRAST, COLD AIR FLOWING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAS PROMPTED A FREEZE WATCH
OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
ZIEGENFELDER
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