707
FXCA20 KWBC 061243
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
843 AM EDT FRI OCT 06 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI OCT 06/12UTC:
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THEN A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST IS FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL HAVE A MORE
SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY COMPONENT ON MONDAY ONWARD...THOUGH THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE OF AN ESE DIRECTION. THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...DUE TO THE
MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE ISLANDS. BUT MOISTURE WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY BEHIND THE
TROPICAL WAVE ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...PERHAPS WITH A MINOR
CONCENTRATION OF SAHARAN DUST ON SATURDAY ACCORDING TO THE GEOS
MODEL. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE UNUSUALLY DRY FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN 1 AND 1.2 INCHES...WHICH IS
MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY DUE TO A SMALL PATCH OF MOISTURE THAT
COULD MOVE IN. OUT OF THE NEXT 5 DAYS...TODAY WOULD BE THE DAY
WITH THE MOST RAIN IN THE FORECAST...WHILE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WOULD BE THE DRIEST DAYS.
DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AND THE APPROACHING TROPICAL
WAVE...COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE AND LOCAL
EFFECTS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY ACROSS
PR/USVI. THE AREAS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN ARE
THE SOUTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF PR...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA...AS WELL
AS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR. ELSEWHERE IN PR AND THE USVI
WOULD STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT PERHAPS
NOT AS PERSISTENT OR SIGNIFICANT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
SOUTHEASTER AND NORTHWESTERN PR HAS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AS WELL...BUT THE FORECAST RAINFALL
WOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN TODAY AS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
MOVE IN THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS FORECAST
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND THEN SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD BE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...AS MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY...THE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN EXPECTED ON TUESDAY ARE STILL MODEST...HOWEVER.
THE 5-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PR...BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS...AND 0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES ACROSS
VIEQUES..CULEBRA...AND THE USVI.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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