853
FXCA20 KWBC 061625
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1225 PM EDT FRI OCT 06 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 06 OCT 2023 AT 1600 UTC: POST TROPICAL CYCLONE
PHILIPPE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 110 MILES OR 180 KM SOUTH OF
BERMUDA. PHILIPPE IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING IN THAT GENERAL DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
IS ALSO ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM LIDIA...WHICH IS
LOCATED ABOUT 445 MILES OR 710 KM SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER...LIDIA IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE
WEST NORTHWEST TODAY AND SATURDAY...THEN WEAKEN AGAIN INTO A
TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY AS IT STARTS TO MOVE NORTH AND THEN
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY. IN THE FORECAST TRACK...LIDIA WOULD BE
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO...CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN
STATES OF JALISCO...NAYARIT...OR SINALOA. THOUGH THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON THE FORECAST TRACK...INTEREST IN THE
THE AFOREMENTIONED MEXICAN STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST
ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. THERE IS ALSO
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSE TO THE COAST
OF MICHOACAN...JALISCO...AND COLIMA LATE THIS WEEKEND.
PHILIPPE IS STILL CAUSING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...WHICH WILL CAUSE MOISTURE TO BE BROUGHT UP FROM THE
SOUTH. THERE IS ALSO A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF PR/USVI TODAY...THEN
REACH HISPANIOLA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACROSS PR/USVI TODAY...AND OVER HISPANIOLA INTO SATURDAY. THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LEEWARDS TODAY IS
MINIMAL...THOUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS COULD OBSERVE 10-20MM OF
RAIN. HISPANIOLA AND PR/USVI IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE UP TO 35MM
ACROSS ISOLATED AREAS TODAY. DRIER AIR STARTS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ON SATURDAY...WITH SOME SAHARAN DUST...WHICH
WILL CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN RAINFALL ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND PR/USVI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THAT SAID...SOME
RAIN IS STILL FORECAST FOR HISPANIOLA ON SATURDAY AS TRAILING
MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTS WITH THE HEATING AND
LOCAL EFFECTS TO CAUSE AREAS OF 20-45MM OF RAIN IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. BY SUNDAY...THE POTENTIAL OF
RAIN MOVES TO HAITI...THOUGH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL IS UP TO
15-20MM.LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES...PR/USVI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON SUNDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...THERE IS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THAT WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS
ALSO A HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC THAT
WILL WEAKEN AND DISPLACED AS THE NOW POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
PHILIPPE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THERE IS A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING THE LESSER
ANTILLES TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST THROUGH THE
CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND. IN THE MID LEVELS...THERE IS A WEAK
BUT BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THAT WILL
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS IT
WEAKENS AND GETS ABSORBED BY SUNDAY BY A MUCH BROADER AND LARGER
MID LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST USA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
THERE IS ALSO A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH WILL ALSO
MOVE NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUT WILL LEAVE STRONG WINDS
ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
BY SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
CARIBBEAN BY SUNDAY AND ANOTHER UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL MEXICO ON SUNDAY...THOUGH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MEXICO
WILL HAVE VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT AS WELL...GENERALLY BETWEEN 70
AND 90 KNOTS EACH DAY. THESE STRONG WINDS ALOFT MAY PROVIDE
VENTILATION FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AS A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH AND
REACH NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THERE IS ALSO THE ADDED THREAT OF A
POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE OR AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REACHING THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM
MICHOACAN TO JALISCO ON SUNDAY.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED EACH DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
TROPICAL REGION. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAAS CHANGED THE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...SUGGESTING LESSER AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS...BUT HIGHER IN
OTHERS. THAT SAID...THE MODEL GUIDANCE INSISTS ON AN ACTIVE
WEEKEND WITH AT LEAST SOME RAIN FOR MOST OF THE TROPICAL REGION.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA ARE EXPECTED TO
HAVE A FEW SECTORS OBSERVE MAX VALUES OF 30-70 MM OR HIGHER EACH
DAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE THE REST OF NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA IS
EXPECTED TO OBSERVE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WITH ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS...AMOUNTING TO MAX VALUES
GENERALLY BETWEEN 15-35MM. THE GUIANAS HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY DRY EXCEPT GUYANA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO HAVE OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE OVER
25MM OF RAIN TODAY AND SATURDAY...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
THE AREAS OF CENTRAL AMERICA EXPECTING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ARE PORTIONS OF WESTERN PANAMA AND EASTERN COSTA RICA
COULD OBSERVE 25-50MM IN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE
SUNDAY LOOKS PARTICULARLY ACTIVE WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
COSTA RICA AND MAX VALUES NEAR 75-125MM. EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA
ARE FORECAST MAX VALUES BETWEEN 20-40MM EACH DAY. THE ATLANTIC
SIDE OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS IS EXPECTED TO OBSERVE MUCH LESS
RAIN THAN THE REST...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAX VALUES
GENERALLY IN THE 10-20MM RANGE.
THINGS CONTINUE COMPLICATED IN MEXICO...AS THERE ARE SEVERAL
FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOME AREAS. THERE IS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THAT COULD REACH WESTERN MEXICO ON SUNDAY...AND THERE
IS ALSO TROPICAL STORM LIDIA. THESE SYSTEMS WOULD BE PROVIDING
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW TO THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS...THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ONSHORE FLOW
COULD CAUSE LIFTING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF MEXICO. THE COLD
FRONT THAT IS MOVING SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO...COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN VERACRUZ...POSSIBLY CAUSING AS MUCH AS 35-80MM EACH DAY
THIS WEEKEND ACROSS ISOLATED AREAS. THROUGH SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORMS
ARE PARTICULARLY POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO...PRODUCING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAX VALUES SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN 25-70MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 07/00 07/12 08/00 08/12 09/00 09/12 10/00
TW 15N 64W 66W 69W 72W 75W 78W 81W 84W
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 64W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 15N.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...OVER 25MM CAN BE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
PR/USVI TODAY. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST THROUGH
THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES...BUT IT WILL HELP
CAUSE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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