132
FXUS01 KWBC 061951
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
351 PM EDT FRI OCT 06 2023
VALID 00Z SAT OCT 07 2023 - 00Z MON OCT 09 2023
...POST TROPICAL CYCLONE PHILIPPE TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY...
...MUCH COOLER FALL TEMPERATURES OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND WITH A FREEZE EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING
FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
...MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEST...
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE THE
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH POST TROPICAL CYCLONE PHILIPPE IN THE
NORTHEAST. A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST AS PHILIPPE APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTH. IT IS EXPECTED THAT PHILIPPE WILL EVENTUALLY BE
ABSORBED INTO THIS BROADER UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT WILL LINGER OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IS IN PLACE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY FOR
PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WHERE TWO CORRIDORS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO
SET UP. THE FIRST WILL BE A NORTH/SOUTH CORRIDOR THROUGH THE
HUDSON RIVER AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS ALONG THE EASTWARD ADVANCING
COLD FRONT WHERE INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE APPROACH OF PHILIPPE
AND STRENGTHENING DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS STORMS WITH
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE SECOND WILL
BE IN EASTERN MAINE FOR RAINFALL MORE DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
PHILIPPE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ONSHORE LATER SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. EVEN MORE ANOMALOUS SURFACE MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL
UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HELP ENHANCE
RAINFALL TOTALS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED FOR EASTERN MAINE ALONG THE STORM'S TRACK, AS WELL AS
HIGH SURF ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE QUICKLY INTO CANADA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, WITH THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY DIMINISHING IN THE MORNING.
WHILE MUCH OF THE ATTENTION WILL BE ON PHILIPPE, THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SOME LAKE-EFFECT SHOWERS TO THE GREAT LAKES
THIS WEEKEND, AS WELL AS MUCH COOLER FALL TEMPERATURES TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AFTER WHAT HAS BEEN A WARM START TO
OCTOBER. FORECAST HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S AND
50S FOR THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST, THE 50S AND 60S FOR THE NORTHEAST
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AND THE
60S AND 70S FOR THE SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. NUMEROUS FROST AND
FREEZE RELATED ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY MORNING, THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER SATURDAY
IN FLORIDA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW
90S, BUT DROP INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S FOR ALL BUT SOUTH FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE FRONT PASSAGE. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AS WELL.
MEANWHILE, AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH AMPLIFY OVER THE EAST, AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WEST WITH MUCH
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. A
HANDFUL OF RECORD TYING/BREAKING HIGHS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS ARE
FORECAST IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, GREAT
BASIN, AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, WITH 90S TO LOW 100S IN THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA VALLEYS. HEAT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FOR HIGHS INTO THE 90S SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT COASTAL
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
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