521
FXUS01 KWBC 062031
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
431 PM EDT FRI OCT 06 2023
VALID 00Z SAT OCT 07 2023 - 00Z MON OCT 09 2023
...EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF PHILIPPE TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY...
...MUCH COOLER FALL TEMPERATURES OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND WITH A FREEZE EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING
FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
...MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEST...
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE THE
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF PHILIPPE IN
THE NORTHEAST. A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST AS THE REMNANTS OF
PHILIPPE APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS
CIRCULATION WILL EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED INTO THE BROADER
UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IS IN
PLACE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WHERE TWO CORRIDORS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP. THE FIRST WILL BE
A NORTH/SOUTH CORRIDOR THROUGH THE HUDSON RIVER AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS ALONG THE EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHERE INCREASING
MOISTURE FROM THE APPROACH OF THE REMNANTS OF PHILIPPE AND
STRENGTHENING DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS STORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE SECOND WILL BE
IN EASTERN MAINE FOR RAINFALL MORE DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF PHILIPPE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ONSHORE LATER
SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. EVEN MORE ANOMALOUS SURFACE
MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS FROM THE APPROACHING
TROUGH WILL HELP ENHANCE RAINFALL TOTALS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY
RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR EASTERN MAINE ALONG THE
STORM'S TRACK, AS WELL AS HIGH SURF ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY INTO CANADA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY, WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY DIMINISHING IN
THE MORNING.
WHILE MUCH OF THE ATTENTION WILL BE ON THE REMNANTS OF PHILIPPE,
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SOME LAKE-EFFECT SHOWERS TO THE
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND, AS WELL AS MUCH COOLER FALL TEMPERATURES
TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AFTER WHAT HAS BEEN A WARM
START TO OCTOBER. FORECAST HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM THE
40S AND 50S FOR THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST, THE 50S AND 60S FOR THE
NORTHEAST SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, AND THE 60S AND 70S FOR THE SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
NUMEROUS FROST AND FREEZE RELATED ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AS TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY MORNING, THE FIRST FREEZE
OF THE SEASON FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WARMER SATURDAY IN FLORIDA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S TO LOW 90S, BUT DROP INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S FOR ALL BUT
SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE FRONT PASSAGE. SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA AS WELL.
MEANWHILE, AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH AMPLIFY OVER THE EAST, AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WEST WITH MUCH
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. A
HANDFUL OF RECORD TYING/BREAKING HIGHS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS ARE
FORECAST IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, GREAT
BASIN, AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, WITH 90S TO LOW 100S IN THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA VALLEYS. HEAT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FOR HIGHS INTO THE 90S SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT COASTAL
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
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