906
FXUS01 KWBC 070758
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
357 AM EDT SAT OCT 07 2023
VALID 12Z SAT OCT 07 2023 - 12Z MON OCT 09 2023
...REMNANTS OF PHILIPPE TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO SPREAD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
U.S. INTO MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND...
...MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEST...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY, WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY, EVENTUALLY
CLOSING OFF FROM THE MAIN JET STREAM AND BECOMING A LARGE CLOSED
LOW OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION FOR SUNDAY. AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY, BRINGING AREAS OF SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME LOCATIONS COULD
RECEIVE OVER 3 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT POSING A RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING. THIS INCLUDES NEW YORK CITY AND SURROUNDING
AREAS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHICH REMAIN SENSITIVE TO RUNOFF
GIVEN HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE END OF SEPTEMBER.
MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE LOW FROM FORMER TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE
WILL TRACK INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT,
BECOMING ABSORBED INTO THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT. THE APPROACH OF THE
SURFACE LOW WILL COINCIDE WITH A SURGE OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH IS
LIKELY TO IMPACT AREAS OF MAINE WITH 3-5 INCHES OF RAIN LATER
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS WHICH COULD
GUST AS HIGH AS 50 MPH.
AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN, MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. FOLKS IN THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS WILL WAKE UP TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
AND/OR FROST THIS MORNING AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE APPALACHIANS.
THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST FOR SUNDAY
WITH SIMILAR 10-20 DEGREE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES. THE COLD AIR WILL
PROMOTE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DOWNWIND OF THE
GREAT LAKES, BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN TOO WARM FOR
SNOW. THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA TODAY/TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE FREE FROM
PRECIPITATION EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR THE SPREADING OF WILDFIRES TODAY FROM THE
GULF COAST STATES INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOUT 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. SOME RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF A
COLD FRONT BUT THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN WARM TO HOT AND DRY.
OTTO
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