869
FXCA20 KWBC 101246
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
845 AM EDT TUE OCT 10 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI OCT 10/12UTC:
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF PR/USVI WILL PROMOTE
EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY. ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL
MODELS...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS
ON THURSDAY AND MOVE EAST NEAR BERMUDA BY FRIDAY...WHICH COULD
INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WINDS...MAKING THEM LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY ON
FRIDAY. THE LOCAL WINDS WOULD THEN BE VERY LIGHT...AND PERHAPS
VARIABLE ON SATURDAY...AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES SOUTH BUT REMAINS
NORTH OF 20N. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT HIGH HIGH PRESSURES WILL DOMINATE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND A TRADE WIND INVERSION WILL PREVAIL OVER
PR/USVI THROUGH THURSDAY. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL DECREASE
TODAY...AND BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A PATCH OF MOISTURE MOVES IN ON THURSDAY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE WOULD BE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY ONWARD UNTIL
EARLY SUNDAY. EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE INCREASES FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
REMAIN WEAK. THE 500MB TEMPS ARE VERY WARM...LAPSE RATES ARE
WEAK...AND THE EGDI ALGORITHM DOES NOT SUGGEST MUCH EXCEPT A
CHANCE OF VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE AND THE STRING TRADE WIND
INVERSION EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...VERY MODEST AMOUNTS OF
RAIN ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDWEEK. THE AMOUNT OF RAIN PICKS UP
ON THURSDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH OVER 2 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER. HOWEVER...INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH...THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME
GENERALIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT THE AMOUNTS ARE VERY
LIGHT...MOSTLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH...THOUGH THE MAX AMOUNTS
COULD BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.5 INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS
DUE TO SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE OR OROGRAPHIC LIFTING.
THE 5-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR
THE NORTHWESTER SECTIONS OF PR...BETWEEN 1 AND 1.25 INCHES FOR THE
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS...AND 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES ACROSS
VIEQUES..CULEBRA...AND THE USVI.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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