280
FXUS01 KWBC 101732
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
131 PM EDT TUE OCT 10 2023
VALID 00Z WED OCT 11 2023 - 00Z FRI OCT 13 2023
...COLDER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO MOVE EAST FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH MID-WEEK WHILE ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SHIFT INTO PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS...
...INCREASED THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING FOR PORTIONS
OF THE GULF COAST WEDNESDAY & NEAR NORTHEAST FLORIDA ON THURSDAY...
A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS, BRINGING PRECIPITATION INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST,
INTERIOR WEST AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
MID-OCTOBER AVERAGES WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
SUPPORTING ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS (MAINLY
7000+ FT) OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ROCKIES AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WEST.
AS THE RELATED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE GREAT PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NORTH OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HEAVY RAIN FROM NORTHERN NEBRASKA/SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S., A WARM FRONT IN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A CONVECTIVE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO WHICH THEN GETS STRUNG
OUT/MULCH-CENTERED AS THE SYSTEM SHEARS EASTWARD. PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN TEXAS COULD RECEIVE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, SOME OF WHICH COULD FALL AT A HIGH INTENSITY,
SUPPORTING A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE HEAVIEST RAIN MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE GULF, A FEW INCHES OF RAIN AND LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL RATES, WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO
SOUTHERN ALABAMA/GEORGIA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ON
THURSDAY, HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING IN AND NEAR NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, SHOWERS AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO A SLOW-MOVING
CLOSED LOW ALOFT, CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE
CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEPARTING EASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING
ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH A TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT IN WEATHER
CONDITIONS BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
ROTH/OTTO
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page