350
FXCA20 KWBC 101809
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
208 PM EDT TUE OCT 10 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 10 OCT 2023 AT 1800 UTC: HURRICANE LIDIA IS
FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER JALISCO THIS AFTERNOON. IN TERMS OF
RAINFALL...LIDIA COULD CAUSE AS MUCH AS 100 - 200MM TODAY OVER THE
COASTAL SECTIONS OF MICHOACAN...NORTH TO NAYARIT. FURTHER
NORTHEAST...FROM NAYARIT NORTHEAST THROUGH ZACATECAS INTO NUEVO
LEON...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY AS WELL...WITH MAX
VALUES BETWEEN 30 AND 60MM. THERE IS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN PACIFIC THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST
OVER THE NEXT E DAYS...REACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF OAXACA BY
THURSDAY EVENING. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO NEXT TO A WARM FRONT...THERE IS ALSO A STATIONARY
FRONT FROM NORTH OF CUBA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM ABOUT 30N/66W TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THESE FRONTS WILL EVOLVE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEK...AND BY THURSDAY EVENING A STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED FROM
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS...WHERE A LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED CLOSE TO 31N/70W...THEN A WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO THE
EAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE AREA...CENTERED NEAR NORTHERN CUBA AND
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE MID LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT THREE
DAYS. OVERALL THE DAY WITH THE MOST RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO BE TODAY...NOT ONLY DUE TO THE RAIN GENERATED FROM
LIDIA...BUT ALSO SIGNIFICANT RAIN...WITH MAX VALUES SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN 30-80MM POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND
WESTERN GUATEMALA...COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...AS WE AS NORTHERN
ECUADOR...WESTERN COLOMBIA...EASTERN COLOMBIA AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. THE CARIBBEAN...FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE
FAIRLY QUIET WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER 25MM...WITH
MOST AREAS ACTUALLY OBSERVING UNDER 15MM EACH DAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK.
FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD...THE FORECAST FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
DECREASES WITH EACH PASSING DAY. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER GRADUALLY
DECREASES...MOST SIGNIFICANTLY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...BUT SOME AREAS OF MEXICO WILL SEE A DECREASE AS WELL.
THAT SAID...MOISTURE WILL STILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL. MOST AREAS
FROM MEXICO DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA INTO NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA...ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A DECREASE IN RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND
EVEN MORE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MAX RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY BETWEEN 15-25MM ACROSS THE AREAS
MENTIONED...THOUGH WEDNESDAY COULD HAVE MAX VALUES UP TO 35MM OVER
EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA...UP TO 45MM OVER NORTHWESTERN
COLOMBIA...AND...40-80MM OVER COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA WELL
AS WESTERN COLOMBIA AND NORTHWESTERN ECUADOR. THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY LOOKS EVEN BETTER FOR MOST AREAS...MAX RAINFALL VALUES OF
15-25MM FORECAST FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA INTO SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN MEXICO...PORTIONS OF SONORA IN MEXICO...AS WELL AS MANY
AREAS OF NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY IS OVER WESTERN PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA...WITH RAIN UP TO 40MM...AND OVER ISOLATED AREAS OF WESTERN
COLOMBIA AND WESTERN VENEZUELA...WHERE UP TO 45MM ARE FORECAST.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 11/00 11/12 12/00 12/12 13/00 13/12 14/00
TW 15N 84W 86W 89W 91W 93W 96W 98W 101W
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 84W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 15N.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM TODAY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORKWEEK ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE RAINFALL OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS COULD
BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...CAUSING ONSHORE FLOW TO THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS CAUSING
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND ENHANCING THE SHOWER POTENTIAL OVER THE
AREA.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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