108
FXCA20 KWBC 111847
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
246 PM EDT WED OCT 11 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 11 OCT 2023 AT 1800 UTC: THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
DECREASED THE RAINFALL FORECAST IN GENERAL FOR MOST AREAS. SEVERAL
ADJUSTMENTS WERE DONE TO THE RAINFALL FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS
ADJUSTMENT IN THE GUIDANCE ITSELF. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WEST
ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS CURRENTLY OVER GUATEMALA. THIS
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT ITS CHARACTERISTICS START TO LOSE DEFINITION FOR
THIS WEEKEND...AND THEREFORE IT IS NOT REFLECTED IN OUR DAY 3
CHART. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO NEXT TO A COLD FRONT BEHIND IT AND A WARM FRONT TO THE
EAST. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND IT WHILE A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. BY FRIDAY EVENING...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL
BE CLOSE TO 31N/56W...WITH A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST OF IT. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US WILL HAVE A STATIONARY FRONT
TO THE WEST AND A WARM FRONT TO THE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE DOMINATE MOST OF THE AREA...CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE MID LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OVERALL EACH DAY WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE
TROPICAL REGION. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY
FOR TODAY... THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
SIGNIFICANT RAIN ACROSS ISOLATED AREAS OF JALISCO IN
MEXICO...COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA...AS WELL AS SOUTHEASTERN
COLOMBIA...WITH MAX VALUES NEAR 30 - 80MM.
FOR THURSDAY...THE FORECAST FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DECREASES.
MAX RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY BETWEEN 15-25MM
ACROSS MOST AREAS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO...AS WELL
AS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA. THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED OT HAVE
VERY LITTLE RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE AREAS WITH THE MOST RAIN
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY ARE NORTHERN ECUADOR...AND ISOLATED PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN COLOMBIA...WITH MAX VALUES UP TO 60MM. THE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN INCREASE FOR FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
MEXICO...WESTERN COLOMBIA...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN PERU. MAX
RAINFALL ACROSS THOSE AREAS COULD BE IN THE ORDER OF 30-80MM.
ELSEWHERE IN THE REGION...MOST PLACES WOULD OBSERVE MAX VALUES
BETWEEN 15-25MM...ESPECIALLY OVER WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO...MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND MANY AREAS OF
COLOMBIA...ECUADOR...AND ISOLATED SECTIONS OF VENEZUELA. THE
CARIBBEAN IN EXPECTED TO OBSERVE ONCE AGAIN VERY LITTLE RAIN...UP
TO 10MM ACROSS ISOLATED AREAS.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 12/00 12/12 13/00 13/12 14/00 14/12 15/00
TW 15N 90W 94W 96W 98W 100W DISS
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 90W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 15N. THE
TROPICAL WAVE COULD HELP PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO
TODAY...AS IT MOVES WEST...BUT THE DEFINITION APPEARS TO BE
DISSIPATING AFTER THURSDAY AND THEREFORE WE HAVE IT AS DISSIPATING
BY FRIDAY.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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