915
FXUS01 KWBC 111931
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
330 PM EDT WED OCT 11 2023
VALID 00Z THU OCT 12 2023 - 00Z SAT OCT 14 2023
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL, SEVERE
WEATHER, AND EVEN HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...
...HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY TO CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY FOR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...
A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM PUSHING OUT OF THE WEST TODAY WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING AN ARRAY OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY. ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT, EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST, RAIN/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT, AND SOME STORMS COULD POSE BOTH A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST INTO THURSDAY WITH A RENEWED SURGE
IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY OCCURRING NEAR THE NEBRASKA SURFACE LOW
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN KANSAS WITH FLASH FLOODING
BECOMING A CONCERN TO THE NORTH, IN/AROUND THE MIDDLE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY. HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD SPREAD NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WITH A THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY. AS
COLDER AIR REACHES THE HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW, RAIN MAY ALSO MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS SYSTEM, MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, INTO THE MIDWEST
AND EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S LIKELY
OR EVEN THE 80S FOR SOME.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG A WARM FRONT
WILL INTERACT WITH A SURGE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE TO CONTINUE A
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN
GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AS
WELL. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE, IS EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THURSDAY. INSTABILITY NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ITSELF SHOULD ALLOW FOR A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS WELL ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA.
FARTHER NORTH, A CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR
THE PAST FEW DAYS JUST NORTH THE GREAT LAKES WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SHOWERS BENEATH THE CLOSED LOW
WILL CONTINUE DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY, BUT
THE REST OF THE NORTHEAST SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT TO MAINE. COOLER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THE END OF THE WEEK
UNDERNEATH THIS UPPER LOW AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD.
SANTORELLI/OTTO
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