354
FXCA20 KWBC 121249
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
848 AM EDT THU OCT 12 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI OCT 12/12UTC:
EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS PR/USVI. WINDS WILL
BECOME VERY LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THAT
SAID...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE CLOSE TO THE
LOCAL ISLANDS BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME
VARIATIONS IN THE WIND DIRECTION...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE VERY LIGHT. FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...A MORE PERSISTENT
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO A FEW SFC
LOWS MOVING EAST FROM THE EASTERN US INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND A SFC
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS BACK UP TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 1.7 TO 2.1
INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY...DECREASING BRIEFLY ON MONDAY TO AROUND 1.4
INCHES...BUT BUMPING BACK UP TO 1.8 INCHES BY MONDAY NIGHT. EVEN
THOUGH MOISTURE IS NEAR NORMAL AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY LOCALLY INDUCED DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE. WITH THE EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...THE
AFTERNOON RAIN WOULD BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO WESTERN PR AND INTO
NORTHWESTERN PR. FROM FRIDAY ONWARD...THE WINDS WILL BE SO LIGHT
THAT THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY BE RIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL INTO
WESTERN PR ON FRIDAY. THEN ON SATURDAY...WITH THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH...THE CONVECTION COULD BE NUDGED NORTHWARD. THAT SAID...THE
EGDI ALGORITHM ONLY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL OF SHALLOW CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MEANING THAT IF THERE ARE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...THEY WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED.
THE FORECAST RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS IS RELATIVELY
LIMITED...TODAY BEING THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF RAIN
EXPECTED...OVER AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL...WESTERN...AND INTO NORTHWESTERN PR. UNDER AN INCH OF
RAIN IS FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL TO WESTERN PR ON FRIDAY...AND
UNDER A HALF AN INCH OF RAIN EVERY OTHER DAY THEREAFTER. THE 5-DAY
RAINFALL TOTAL IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2.5 INCHES FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR...NEAR 0.75 INCHES TO 1 INCH FOR THE
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS...AND 0.10 TO 0.50 INCHES ACROSS
VIEQUES..CULEBRA...AND THE USVI.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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