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FXCA20 KWBC 131243
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
842 AM EDT FRI OCT 13 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI OCT 13/12UTC:
WINDS WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...MAINLY FROM A
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BUT AT TIMES WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE GIVEN
HOW LIGHT THEY ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY. THAT SAID...WINDS
COULD BE CALM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS COULD
CAUSE AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER PR TO BE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL TO WESTERN PR TODAY AND SATURDAY...DUE TO
DIURNAL EFFECTS...WHILE OTHER AREAS COULD OBSERVE VERY LITTLE IF
ANY RAINFALL. FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...THE WINDS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT...AT AROUND 10 KT OR LESS...AND PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST. THE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS IS
DUE TO A COUPLE OF SFC LOWS MOVING EAST FROM THE EASTERN US INTO
THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WHILE A WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVES WEST FROM THE EASTERN TO THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THERE IS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THAT IS EXTENDING TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IN THE MID
LEVELS THERE IS ALSO A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUT THERE IS VERY WEAK
TROUGHINESS NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...THOUGH NOT
STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA.
THEREFORE...THE EGDI ALGORITHM ONLY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL OF
SHALLOW CONVECTION OR VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED TO BE AT AROUND 1.7 TO 2.1
INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY...DECREASING TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AT AROUND 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES.
THE FORECAST RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS INCREASED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF LONGER LASTING RAIN OVER
ANY ONE AREA AS THE STEERING WINDS ARE SO LIGHT. SO THE LOCALLY
INDUCED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL PR COULD MOVE VERY SLOWLY. OVER AN
INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO WESTERN PR
TODAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE RAINIEST DAYS IN
THE 5-DAY PERIOD. THE 5-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL IS FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 3 TO 3.5 INCHES FOR THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
PR...NEAR 0.75 INCHES TO 1 INCH FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS...AND 0.10 TO 0.65 INCHES ACROSS VIEQUES..CULEBRA...AND
THE USVI.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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