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FXCA20 KWBC 161251
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
851 AM EDT MON OCT 16 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI OCT 16/12UTC:
SEVERAL FEATURES WILL BE IMPACTING THE LOCAL WEATHER THIS
WEEK...AND THEREFORE UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER THAN
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THAT SAID...SOME
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED EACH DAY THIS WEEK ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PR AND USVI AS WELL AS CENTRAL TO WESTERN PR. MOST OF THE RAINFALL
TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF
PR HOWEVER. THERE IS CURRENTLY A SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHWEST OF
PR/USVI...CAUSING THE WINDS TO BE MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
TODAY AND TUESDAY. A SFC TROUGH COULD APPROACH PR/USVI ON
WEDNESDAY AND THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY UNTIL
THURSDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A SURGE OF WIND COMING
FROM THE EAST BY FRIDAY...CAUSING A BAND OF MOISTURE TO APPROACH
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND THE WINDS TO BE SOUTHEASTERLY ONCE AGAIN.
THAT SAID...THIS MAY BE INFLUENCED BY THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
INVEST 94L CURRENTLY NEAR 37W.
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THAT IS DOMINATING THE
AREA..BUT A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AND A SMALL MID LEVEL
LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN VORTICITY AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THERE IS A LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CARIBBEAN OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING WEST AND
IS EXPECTED TO BE TO THE SOUTH OF PR/USVI BY THURSDAY. THERE IS
ALSO AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WOULD BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND THE AXIS WOULD BE NEAR PR/USVI LATE THURSDAY. THEREFORE...THE
EGDI ALGORITHM IS SUGGESTING A VERY MARGINAL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN POSSIBLE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL VORTICITY INCREASES...AND PERHAPS ON
FRIDAY IF THE WIND SURGE AND LINE OF MOISTURE COMES IN.
IN GENERAL...THE 5-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 3
INCHES FOR THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR...NEAR 2.5 TO 2.75
INCHES FOR THE EAST AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS...AND 0.25 TO 0.75
INCHES ACROSS VIEQUES..CULEBRA...AND THE USVI. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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