502
FXCA20 KWBC 161731
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
131 PM EDT MON OCT 16 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 16 OCT 2023 AT 1830 UTC: A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE USA INTO THE CUBA/THE
BAHAMAS...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
ON MONDAY. A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
MOVES SOUTH AND EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC...INTO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE HAS DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION AND
IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS/TURKS AND CAICOS...EXTREME
EAST CUBA...AND REACHES INTO EAST HONDURAS/NICARAGUA. INCREASED
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER COASTAL NORTHWEST HONDURAS IS EXPECTED
WILL FAVOR LARGE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...MAXIMA OF
60-125MM...AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN SOUTHERN BELIZE...CENTRAL
GUATEMALA...AND WEST HONDURAS. EASTER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA ARE
FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...WHILE THE BAHAMAS/TURKS AND
CAICOS...AND CENTRAL CUBA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. EASTERN
CUBA...AND WESTERN HISPANIOLA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. IN THE
PACIFIC BASIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA...A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA IS
FAVORING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE AREA. EASTERN EL SALVADOR AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NICARAGUA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 35-70MM.
THE REST OF NICARAGUA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. INTERACTION
WITH THE ITCZ AND INCREASED MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO FAVOR MAXIMA
OF 20-45MM IN COSTA RICA AND WEST PANAMA...AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM
IN EAST PANAMA. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN...WITH MAXIMA OF 15MM EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO...AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES. ON TUESDAY...THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMES MOSTLY
STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INTO CUBA...AND IN THE GULF
OF HONDURAS. THE PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE LOSES ITS DEFINITION AND A
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
INTO EASTERN NICARAGUA. TO THE EAST...A TROUGH OVER PANAMA IS
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE WEST AND BRING INCREASED AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER. NORTHERN HONDURAS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
40-80MM...WHILE EASTERN NICARAGUA IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
SOUTHERN NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN COSTA RICA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
30-60MM. ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA...EXPECT MAXIMA BELOW 25MM.
OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS WITH ITS BASE
EXPECTED OVER THE REGION...AND IS FORECAST TO FAVOR SQUALLY
WEATHER AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. EASTERN CUBA...TURKS AND
CAICOS...AND HISPANIOLA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ELSEWHERE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN...DRY CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA BELOW 15MM.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO LOSE DEFINITION OVER
CUBA AND INTO CENTRAL AMERICA...YET LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ARE
STILL EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. INCREASED TRADE WINDS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN WILL FAVOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG EASTERN
CENTRAL AMERICA. NORTHERN HONDURAS IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF 40-80MM.
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND EASTERN NICARAGUA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-45MM. SOUTH-CENTRAL CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND COSTA
RICA/WEST PANAMA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ELSEWHERE OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN BASIN CAN EXPECT GENERALIZED
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
THE UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM ADVECTED DRIER AIR INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO. SOUTHERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOIST ON
MONDAY...WHERE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN VERACRUZ...TABASCO...CHIAPAS... AND EASTERN OAXACA ARE
FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR...EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON TUESDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. HOWEVER... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHWEST OF JALISCO IS
FAVORING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG SOUTHERN
MICHOACAN...GUERRERO...AND OAXACA. SIMILARLY...ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA WILL BE FAVORING
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN SOUTHERN CHIAPAS. THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE PASSING
FRONTAL SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN VERACRUZ...TABASCO...AND NORTHERN
CHIAPAS MAY FAVOR SIMILAR AMOUNTS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF JALISCO IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE
NORTHWEST AND IT IS EXPECTED IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE TO
SOUTHERN MEXICO. FROM JALISCO...TO GUERRERO...EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. ELSEWHERE IN MEXICO...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...INTERACTIONS WITH THE ITCZ...LOW LEVEL
TROUGHS PROPAGATING OVER THE REGION...AND INCREASED PRECIPITABLE
WATER WILL FAVOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON
MONDAY...ONSHORE FLOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN COLOMBIA AND WEST ECUADOR
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND NORTHWEST
VENEZUELA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS
PROPAGATING OVER VENEZUELA AND INTO EASTERN COLOMBIA...WHERE
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON TUESDAY...WEST-CENTRAL COLOMBIA IS
FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...WHILE A TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
VENEZUELA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. THE GUIANAS...AND CENTRAL
COLOMBIA INTO ECUADOR MAY SEE MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON
WEDNESDAY...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES OVER WESTERN COLOMBIA AND WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ANDES IN
SOUTHERN COLOMBIA AND INTO WESTERN ECUADOR/NORTHERN PERU MAY FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. EASTERN VENEZUELA...SOUTHERN GUYANA...AND
PORTIONS OF SURINAME ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ELSEWHERE IN
THE REGION EXPECT MAXIMA BETWEEN 15-25MM.
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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