776
FXUS01 KWBC 161753
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
153 PM EDT MON OCT 16 2023
VALID 00Z TUE OCT 17 2023 - 00Z THU OCT 19 2023
...A COOL AUTUMN AIRMASS WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST,
GREAT LAKES, AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
...WARM AND DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S., BUT RAINY
CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
...A WARMING TREND EXPECTED IN THE GREAT PLAINS AS A ROUND OF
MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN REACHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY...
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND AN AXIS OF
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIRECT A COOL AUTUMN AIR MASS FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE GULF COAST
AND EVEN FLORIDA. HOWEVER, AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND
BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD, A RESERVOIR OF WARM AIR OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN U.S IS EXPECTED TO TO SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE GREAT PLAINS.
THE WARMING PROCESS WILL BE SLOWER TO OCCUR FARTHER EAST AS THE
MASSIVE EXPANSE OF COOL AUTUMN AIR OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK DOWN. UNDER THIS WEATHER PATTERN,
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOUND THROUGH TONIGHT FROM
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, DOWN ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY, AND AS FARTHER SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
THE SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD, BUT PARTLY
TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING
BEFORE THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION
LATER ON TUESDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS.
WHILE MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S. HAS BEEN DRY, MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING
WINDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DOWN
INTO NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA FOR THE REST OF TODAY. THIS LATEST
ROUND OF RAIN IS FORECAST TO END LATER ON TUESDAY FROM OREGON
SOUTHWARD WITH THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA IN WASHINGTON REMAINING RAINY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING UPON THE ARRIVAL OF A WARM FRONT WELL
AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM. MEANWHILE, A PIECE OF THE LEAD
UPPER TROUGH WILL PENETRATE FARTHER INLAND, BRINGING A ROUND OF
RAIN AND HIGH-ELEVATION WET SNOW ACROSS IDAHO AND MONTANA INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FAR NORTHERN
PLAINS WHERE A ROUND OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. STRONG
WINDS INCLUDING MAXIMUM GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS HAS PROMPTED HIGH
WIND WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MONTANA. MEANWHILE, SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE ALBERTA
CLIPPER AND A LEE TROUGH NEAR THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES WILL
ALLOW WARM AIR TO FILTER INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY,
RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. MEANWHILE, ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHERE
HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD TOP THE CENTURY MARK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
KONG/SNELL
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