508
FXCA20 KWBC 171710
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
109 PM EDT TUE OCT 17 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 17 OCT 2023 AT 1730 UTC: ON TUESDAY...MEXICO
CONTINUES TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR. THE BASE
OF A DEEPENING TROUGH REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND PORTIONS
SOUTHEAST MEXICO...AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERS OFFSHORE
SOUTHERN GUERRERO. OF INTEREST...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS
WATCHING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 105W AND 13N AT 1700
UTC ON TUESDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ENHANCING ONSHORE FLOW
INTO THE SOUTHERN COASTS OF
JALISCO...COLIMA...MICHOACAN...GUERRERO...AND OAXACA. IT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AND CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AFOREMENTIONED STATES. ON
TUESDAY...ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IS EXPECTED FROM SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ...TO SOUTHERN CHIAPAS...AND FROM JALISCO...TO WESTERN
OAXACA. ON WEDNESDAY...FROM SOUTHERN JALISCO...TO
GUERRERO...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
IN CHIAPAS...TABASCO...SINALOA...AND NAYARIT. MAXIMA OF 15-25MM
ARE FORECAST FROM JALISCO TO CENTRAL OAXACA.
A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE
USA INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN BASIN...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A STATIONARY SURFACE
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...CENTRAL CUBA...AND INTO THE GULF OF FONSECA
IS FAVORING PRECIPITATION IN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS. A TROUGH
FROM A DISSIPATING PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE REMAINS OVER TURKS AND
CAICOS/SOUTH BAHAMAS...JAMAICA...AND INTO EXTREME EAST HONDURAS
AND NICARAGUA. AMOUNTS OVER 50MM IN PRECIPITABLE WATER ARE
FORECAST IN THE REGION AND WILL FAVOR MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. NORTHERN HONDURAS IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF
50-100MM...WHILE THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM
WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SQUALLY WEATHER. EASTERN NICARAGUA IS
FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...AND THE TURKS AND
CAICOS...CUBA...CENTRAL HONDURAS...AND WESTERN NICARAGUA CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ELSEWHERE IN THE REGION...THE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS ARE FAVORING ONSHORE FLOW INTO EASTERN COSTA RICA AND
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...WHILE TROUGHS IN THE TRADE WINDS
ARE PROPAGATING OVER THE REGION AND INCREASING THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. EASTERN COSTA RICA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM...WHILE
ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND CENTRAL AMERICA EXPECT MAXIMA
BELOW 25MM. CFS MODEL GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING THE PROPAGATION OF A
KELVIN WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...ENHANCING UPPER DIVERGENCE ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEE THE CHANCE FOR MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE CONDITIONS REMAIN SIMILAR FROM TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. NORTHER HONDURAS AND EASTER NICARAGUA ARE FORECAST
MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-45MM WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. CENTRAL CUBA...AND
WESTERN COSTA RICA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...WHILE THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA WILL SEE ONSHORE FLOW
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. OTHER AREAS IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA BELOW 25MM. ON THURSDAY...LARGE
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUE IN NORTHERN HONDURAS...WITH
MAXIMA OF 40-80MM EXPECTED. THE BAHAMAS ARE FORECAST A MODERATE
RISK OF SQUALLY WEATHER WITH A MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. FROM EASTERN
NICARAGUA TO SOUTHERN PANAMA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. SIMILAR
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FAVORED BY A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH. OTHER AREAS IN THE REGION CAN EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF
15-25MM.
OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...INCREASED AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE TRADE WINDS ARE FAVORING PRECIPITATION...AND A
MID-UPPER LEVEL TUTT IS RETROGRADING OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
BASIN WITH ITS BASE OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND GUYANA...FAVORING
DIVERGENCE IN THE REGION. OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF COLOMBIA AND
ECUADOR...LONG FETCH OF ONSHORE FLOW IS ENHANCING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND FAVORING MODERATE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. ON
TUESDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN
COLOMBIA...AND NORTHWESTERN ECUADOR. EAST-CENTRAL VENEZUELA...AND
SOUTHERN GUYANA/SURINAME ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
ELSEWHERE...MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ARE EXPECTED. ON WEDNESDAY...THE
TRADE WINDS OVER THE GUIANAS ARE ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE EAST
INTO THE REGION AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM ARE FORECAST FOR THE GUIANAS
AND EAST-CENTRAL VENEZUELA. ONSHORE FLOW INTO WEST COLOMBIA AND
ECUADOR CONTINUES AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN
COLOMBIA...VENEZUELA...AND NORTHERN BRAZIL. ON
THURSDAY...INCREASED UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE TUTT CONTINUES MOVING
WEST INTO CENTRAL VENEZUELA/EAST COLOMBIA...WILL FAVOR HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. IN WESTERN COLOMBIA/NORTHWEST
ECUADOR...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO FAVOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF
30-60MM...AND SOUTHERN VENEZUELA...AND THE GUIANAS ARE FORECAST
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. NORTHERN VENEZUELA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM...AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN
COLOMBIA AND NORTHWEST BRAZIL.
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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