685
FXCA20 KWBC 191641
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1241 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 19 OCT 2023 AT 1645 UTC: ON WEDNESDAY...THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS FOLLOWING HURRICANE NORMA...TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH OF MEXICO...NEAR 17.4N AND 107.6W AT 1500 UTC. THE
SOUTH AND WESTERN REGION OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO SEE SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH ONSHORE FLOW FROM HURRICANE NORMA. ELSEWHERE
AROUND THE COUNTRY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST REGION. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN
JALISCO...COLIMA...MICHOACAN...GUERRERO...AND WEST OAXACA.
HURRICANE NORMA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ON THURSDAY...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR IS FORECAST A MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. FROM SINALOA TO
COLIMA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM...AND SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
IN SOUTHERN GUERRERO/OAXACA. ON SATURDAY...HURRICANE NORMA IS
FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THE REGION. THE SOUTHERN REGION OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF 40-80MM...AND SINALOA
AND NAYARIT CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM....AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM
IN SOUTHERN SONORA AND WEST CHIHUAHUA. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN
MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION THAT ENTERS THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS MODEL
GUIDANCE GAINS CONFIDENCE...PRECIPITATION TOTALS MAY CHANGE.
OVER THE CARIBBEAN...A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE
BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LARGE AMOUNTS
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH IS
FAVORING MODERATE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON THURSDAY. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF THE COAST OF THE EASTERN
COAST USA WILL FAVOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BEGIN PROPAGATING
EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE CONTINUE
PROPAGATING EAST OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA ON SATURDAY.
FURTHERMORE...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS FOLLOWING TROPICAL
STORM TAMMY...LOCATED AT 13.6N AND 55.7W AT 1500 UTC ON THURSDAY.
TAMMY IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES BY FRIDAY...AND
MODERATE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED. A TROUGH OVER
PANAMA IS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IT IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN BY SATURDAY AND PROPAGATE EAST OVER COSTA RICA
BY SATURDAY...WHERE IT WILL FAVOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER COSTA
RICA...PANAMA...NICARAGUA...WESTERN COLOMBIA...AND PORTIONS OF
EAST EL SALVADOR. LARGE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH AND HIGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...A KELVIN WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FAVORING DEEP CONVECTION AND
MODERATE AMOUNTS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...THE WAVE IS
FORECAST TO BE MAKING ITS WAY OUTSIDE OF THE REGION...FAVORING
MORE CONVERGENT CONDITIONS ALOFT. ON THURSDAY...NORTHERN HONDURAS
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. THE BAHAMAS HAS A MODERATE RISK OF
SQUALLY WEATHER...AND CUBA HAS A LOWER RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROUGH IN THE LOWER LEVELS PROPAGATING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. IN
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...SOUTHWEST GUATEMALA AND THE GOLFO DE
FONSECA REGION CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM AND ONSHORE FLOW IS
FAVORING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FROM A DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE WEST. MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ARE EXPECTED IN COSTA RICA
AND PANAMA. ELSEWHERE OVER THE REGION...MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 25MM. ON FRIDAY...MODERATE MAXIMA OF 30-60MM WITH A
SLIGHT RISK OF SQUALLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN NORTHERN BAHAMAS.
THE NORTHERN ANTILLES CAN EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS...WHILE THE
SOUTHERN ISLANDS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...DUE TO THE EFFECTS
OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY. AN INTENT OF A SHEAR LINE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA EXTENDS INTO NORTHERN
HONDURAS...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
HONDURAS. FAVORABLE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER EL
SALVADOR...NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA WILL FAVOR SIMILAR
MAXIMA. ON SATURDAY...THE TROUGH OVER COSTA RICA/PANAMA IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND FAVOR MAXIMA OF 50-100MM IN SOUTHEAST COSTA
RICA/SOUTHWEST PANAMA. NORTHERN COSTA RICA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
40-80MM...WHILE PANAMA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE LOCALLY. AS TROPICAL STORM
TAMMY MOVES NORTHWEST...IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ARE EXPECTED FROM EASTERN
BELIZE TO EASTERN NICARAGUA. PRECIPITATION DECREASES OVER THE
BAHAMAS AND CUBA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED IN TURKS AND CAICOS...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND
SOUTHWEST GUATEMALA/WEST EL SALVADOR.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THE PRESENCE OF THE KELVIN WAVE
PROPAGATING OVER THE REGION WILL FAVOR INCREASED AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AND THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
BASE OF A TUTT CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...IS LOCATED
OVER NORTH VENEZUELA. THE TUTT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE REGION AND MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED. ADDITIONALLY...WESTERN
COLOMBIA/ECUADOR ARE EXPECTED TO SEE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE
FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO WINDS MOVING OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. ON
THURSDAY...WEST COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM...AND
NORTH-CENTRAL COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. CENTRAL
VENEZUELA IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. NORTHERN COLOMBIA CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ELSEWHERE IN THE REGION...ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ARE EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...AN INCREASE IN AMOUNTS
FOR WESTERN COLOMBIA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 50-100MM. NORTHERN
COLOMBIA INTO WESTERN VENEZUELA...AND EAST-CENTRAL VENEZUELA...ARE
FORECAST MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ECUADOR CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. THE EASTERLY TRADES ARE ADVECTING DRIER
AIR TO THE GUIANAS ON SATURDAY...WHILE HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO THE WEST. SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
40-80MM...WHILE EXTREME NORTHEAST COLOMBIA...INTO THE LAKE
MARACAIBO REGION CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. A WELL DEFINED
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN VENEZUELA INTO SOUTHERN COLOMBIA WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN THE REGION. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF COLOMBIA AND WESTERN VENEZUELA.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAXIMA TO REMAIN BELOW 25MM.
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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