423
FXCA20 KWBC 201244
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
843 AM EDT FRI OCT 20 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI OCT 20/12UTC:
ON FRIDAY...THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS HAVE A SPEED OF ABOUT 20 KT
AND ARE ADVECTING HIGHER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND IT IS ESTIMATED
PRECIPITATBLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES. ALOFT...DEEP CONVECTION
IS BEING FAVORED BY A TUTT CENTERED BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND IT IS ASSISTED BY A KELVIN WAVE
PROPOGATING OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MODERATE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
ISLAND...WHERE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 1.75 INCHES IN THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE ISLAND AND THE WESTERN SECTOR OF THE ISLAND
COULD OBSERVE MAXIMA OF 0.5-1 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN
BE OBSERVED.
OF INTEREST...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS FOLLOWING TROPICAL
STORM TAMMY...LOCATED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ON FRIDAY
MORNING. THE FORECAST IS GAINING CONFIDENCE THAT THE CENTER OF
TAMMY WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF PUERTO RICO...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE RAINFALL TOTALS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY
OF TAMMY TO PUERTO RICO. IT IS EXPECTED THAT ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH TAMMY WILL BE MOVING OVER THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. BY MONDAY EVENING...A SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE ISLAND FROM THE NORTH AND BRING
A MASS OF DRY AIR BEHIND IT. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE BY TUESDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...PRECIPIATION TOTALS OF
2-2.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...AND MAXIMA
OF 3-3.5 INCHES IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...TOTAL PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN
NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO...WHILE THE REST OF THE ISLAND COULD SEE
TOTAL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.5-1 INCH...WITH LOCALY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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